TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Will Drake have the highest daily view count?
Above 12.75M
- Kalshi
Above 12.75M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 26, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Sep 23, 1:20 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This set of markets tracks whether Drake achieves specific levels of global daily views on YouTube within a defined week. Each outcome represents a different threshold of viewership that needs to be surpassed at any point during the period. The resolution depends on publicly available YouTube chart data viewed from a New York IP address.
Kalshi
All markets share the same core resolution mechanism: each outcome resolves to 'Yes' if Drake's global daily YouTube views exceed the specified threshold at any point between September 21, 2026, and September 27, 2026. View counts are sourced from YouTube Charts using a New York IP address to ensure consistency. All markets explicitly state that neither YouTube nor Kalshi endorses these products, and references to YouTube are purely descriptive. The secondary rules across all markets are identical, emphasizing location-based view count variability and the non-endorsement disclaimer, ensuring uniform methodology for data retrieval and resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to specific analyst forecasts for Drake’s daily view counts. However, the collective wisdom of traders in this market often reflects a different perspective than individual expert opinions. Analysts may focus on historical trends or promotional efforts, while this market incorporates a broader range of factors, including unexpected events and viral moments. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market anticipates a different outcome than traditional analysis suggests, offering a unique insight into potential viewership.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different daily view count ranges for Drake, and the prices of these contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts predicting a higher view count, the price of those contracts increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the evolving expectations of participants regarding Drake’s viewership during the event period. The current market reflects the aggregated predictions of all traders.
This market resolves around Oct 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the highest daily view count Drake achieves across all platforms (e.g., YouTube, streaming services) between September 21, 2026, and September 27, 2026. The specific view count data will be sourced from publicly available metrics and verified to ensure accuracy. The market will then pay out to those who correctly predicted the range containing the highest daily view count.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Announcements regarding new music releases, major public appearances, or collaborations by Drake would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected viral trends featuring Drake’s music or content could also drive up the predicted view counts. Conversely, negative publicity or controversies surrounding Drake could potentially lower expectations. Broad economic factors influencing streaming habits, or changes to platform algorithms impacting viewership, are also possible catalysts. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding how this market evolves.
