TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 13.5M
- Kalshi
Above 13.5M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 21, 2026
Closed: Sep 20, 1:24 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether Drake achieves exceptionally high single-day global view counts on YouTube during September 2026. The outcome depends on whether his daily views surpass various thresholds throughout the month, reflecting his potential for viral or record-breaking performance.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds for Drake's single-day global YouTube view counts during September 2026. Each threshold represents a separate market that resolves to 'Yes' if, at any point during the month, Drake's daily views exceed the specified amount. All markets use the same data source: YouTube Charts, accessed by searching for Drake and selecting 'Global' as the location. The markets are independent, with each threshold (e.g., above 11M, above 11.25M, up to above 15M views) defining a unique condition. None of the markets or products are endorsed by YouTube, and references to YouTube charts are purely descriptive, indicating no affiliation between YouTube and the event organizer. The resolution hinges solely on verifying whether any daily view count during September 2026 surpasses the threshold specified for each market.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of factors than traditional forecasts, incorporating real-time information and diverse perspectives. While analysts might focus on past performance and established trends, the market can quickly adjust to unexpected news or shifts in public sentiment surrounding Drake. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market anticipates a different outcome than experts predict, offering a unique perspective on the potential for high daily view counts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy contracts for a specific view count, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and reflect the collective beliefs of all participants regarding Drake's potential viewership in September 2026.
This market resolves around Oct 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the highest daily view count Drake achieves across all major video platforms during the month of September 2026 will determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from these platforms, ensuring transparency and accuracy. The final price will reflect the probability assigned to the correct outcome by the market leading up to resolution.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major announcements regarding Drake’s new music releases, upcoming tours, or high-profile collaborations would likely impact his viewership. Unexpected viral moments or controversies involving Drake could also drive substantial changes in the market. Additionally, shifts in the broader entertainment landscape, such as the popularity of competing artists or changes in video platform algorithms, could influence predictions. Any news that alters public perception of Drake’s relevance and appeal has the potential to shift the odds in this market.
