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DP World Tour: Open de France Second Round Leader
kalshi
polymarket

Who will lead DP World Tour Open de France Round 2?

Volume:
$297,080

Matt Fitzpatrick

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Closed: Sep 26, 11:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Matt Fitzpatrick

View
100%
69%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$88,190
N/A
N/A
$41,306
1w 4d 2h
Yes
polymarket

Matthew Fitzpatrick

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Michael Kim

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$48,590
N/A
N/A
$34,513
1w 4d 2h
No
polymarket

Michael Kim

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jeff Winther

View
0%
59%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$47,127
N/A
N/A
$22,041
1w 4d 2h
No
polymarket

Jeff Winther

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Kristoffer Reitan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,086
N/A
N/A
$14,081
1w 4d 2h
No
polymarket

Kristoffer Reitan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Thriston Lawrence

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,484
N/A
N/A
$12,358
1w 4d 2h
No
kalshi

Matteo Manassero

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,492
N/A
N/A
$10,424
1w 4d 2h
No
polymarket

Matteo Manassero

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ryan Gerard

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,910
N/A
N/A
$9,580
1w 4d 2h
No
kalshi

Yanhan Zhou

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,888
N/A
N/A
$9,888
1w 4d 2h
No
kalshi

Adrian Meronk

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,850
N/A
N/A
$8,850
1w 4d 2h
No
polymarket

Adrian Meronk

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Gregorio De Leo

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,993
N/A
N/A
$4,809
1w 4d 2h
No
polymarket

Gregorio De Leo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Sam Bairstow

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,974
N/A
N/A
$4,974
1w 4d 2h
No
kalshi

Jason Scrivener

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,416
N/A
N/A
$4,281
1w 4d 2h
No
polymarket

Jason Scrivener

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Angel Hidalgo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,257
N/A
N/A
$4,257
1w 4d 2h
No
polymarket

Angel Hidalgo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Edoardo Molinari

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,118
N/A
N/A
$4,118
1w 4d 2h
No
polymarket

Edoardo Molinari

View
0%
81%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Viktor Hovland

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,868
N/A
N/A
$3,851
1w 4d 2h
No
Total markets: 25 of 266

Intro

This market tracks which golfer will lead after the second round of the 2026 FedEx Open de France tournament. Currently, the consensus probability that Matt Fitzpatrick leads at the end of Round 2 is 99.0%. This prediction aggregates data from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on the official tournament results as defined by whether Michael Kim is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 FedEx Open de France. Keep an eye on the scores following the close of play on October 11, 2026, to see who emerges as the leader after the second round.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets lack tiebreaker rules and a cancellation clause, creating ambiguity in the event of a tie or event disruption, while Polymarket provides a detailed tiebreaker system and cancellation policy.Hero tip: Focus on Polymarket for a more defined resolution process. Be cautious of Kalshi markets where ties are possible, as they may lead to unpredictable outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on lowest cumulative score to par after Round 2, with a detailed tiebreaker system (Round 2 score, Round 1 score, eagles, birdies, bogeys, alphabetical order) and a cancellation clause if the event is cancelled or postponed past a specific date. "If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically."
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if a specific player is the leader at the end of Round 2, with no tiebreaker or cancellation rules. "If [Player Name] is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 FedEx Open de France, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the player that finishes Round 2 of the main tournament at the 2026 Open de France with the lowest cumulative score to par. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 2. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 1. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more eagles thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records more birdies thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records fewer bogeys thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 Open de France is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, or if an official Round 2 leader has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the event organizer or governing body.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on whether a specified golfer is the sole leader at the end of Round 2 of the 2026 FedEx Open de France. If the specified golfer is the outright leader, bets on 'Yes' win their full stake, and 'No' bets lose. Should multiple golfers tie for the lead, payouts adjust proportionally: 'Yes' bets receive $1 divided by the number of tied leaders (rounded down to the nearest cent), while 'No' bets refund the stake minus this payout amount. These rules apply uniformly across all individual golfer markets within the event, ensuring consistent resolution criteria for each participant's performance relative to the Round 2 leaderboard.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on who will be leading after the second round of the DP World Tour’s Open de France. Currently, Polymarket shows Will Albin Bergstroem with a 100% chance, while data from Kalshi is not yet available. The dashboard aggregates trading volume of 0, with 24-hour volume also at 0, providing a real-time look at predictions from a diverse group of traders. This allows for a comprehensive assessment of expectations for the Open de France leader market, beyond any single source.

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of bettors, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on their own models and risk assessment, while this market evolves as traders buy and sell contracts based on their individual insights. This can lead to discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. However, both aim to accurately predict the probability of an event, and comparing them can be a valuable exercise for informed decision-making.

Differences in prices between Polymarket and Kalshi on the Open de France leader market can arise from several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and fee structure, all of which can influence price discovery. Currently, Polymarket favors Will Albin Bergstroem at 100%, while Kalshi leans toward Cameron Adam. These differences may also stem from varying levels of information available to traders on each platform or differing interpretations of the same information. Volume, currently at 0 on both, can also play a role; lower volume can lead to greater price volatility.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Any news regarding a golfer’s health, form, or potential withdrawal from the tournament would likely cause price fluctuations. Live performance during the first round, including scores and playing conditions, will heavily influence trading activity. Unexpected weather changes could also shift probabilities, as certain players may excel or struggle in different conditions. Finally, any significant shifts in public sentiment or expert opinions could drive volume and alter the odds within this market.