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399,592

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DP World Tour: Irish Open First Round Leader
kalshi
polymarket

Who will lead the DP World Tour Irish Open Round 1?

Volume:
$1,804,511

Joaquin Niemann

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 10, 2026

Closed: Sep 11, 9:49 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Joaquin Niemann

View
100%
65%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$161,967
N/A
N/A
$87,369
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Joaquin Niemann

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Rory McIlroy

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$148,156
N/A
N/A
$136,588
Settled
No
kalshi

Patrick Reed

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$130,006
N/A
N/A
$114,176
Settled
No
polymarket

Patrick Reed

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Shane Lowry

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$76,039
N/A
N/A
$74,700
Settled
No
kalshi

Robert MacIntyre

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$59,186
N/A
N/A
$58,734
Settled
No
kalshi

Maximilian Steinlechner

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$57,944
N/A
N/A
$47,700
Settled
No
polymarket

Maximilian Steinlechner

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Francesco Molinari

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$55,257
N/A
N/A
$52,841
Settled
No
polymarket

Francesco Molinari

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jon Rahm

View
0%
53%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$53,953
N/A
N/A
$53,117
Settled
No
polymarket

Jon Rahm

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Renato Paratore

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$46,812
N/A
N/A
$42,450
Settled
No
kalshi

Adrian Meronk

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$45,516
N/A
N/A
$39,661
Settled
No
polymarket

Adrian Meronk

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jacob Skov Olesen

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$45,118
N/A
N/A
$44,499
Settled
No
polymarket

Jacob Skov Olesen

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Oliver Lindell

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$37,874
N/A
N/A
$37,770
Settled
No
polymarket

Oliver Lindell

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ewen Ferguson

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$35,785
N/A
N/A
$35,644
Settled
No
polymarket

Ewen Ferguson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Angel Ayora Fanegas

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$35,015
N/A
N/A
$34,193
Settled
No
polymarket

Angel Ayora

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Rafa Cabrera Bello

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$32,395
N/A
N/A
$29,653
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 266

Intro

This market tracks which golfer will be leading after the first round of the 2026 Amgen Irish Open. Currently, the consensus probability that Joaquin Niemann leads at the end of Round 1 is 97.8%. This prediction aggregates data from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on whether Nacho Elvira is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Amgen Irish Open. Keep an eye on the first round scores concluding on September 27, 2026, as that will determine the outcome of this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The platforms differ in their scope of resolution (any leader vs. lowest score) and tie-breaking procedures. Kalshi lacks explicit tie-breaking rules, while Polymarket provides a comprehensive set.Hero tip: Focus on players likely to be in contention and consider Polymarket's detailed tie-breaking rules when evaluating potential outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the player with the lowest cumulative score to par after Round 1, with detailed tie-breaking procedures. "If the 2026 Irish Open is cancelled, postponed after September 27, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, or if an official Round 1 leader has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 'Other'."
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if the listed player is the leader at the end of Round 1. No tie-breaking rules are explicitly stated.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the player that finishes Round 1 of the main tournament at the 2026 Irish Open with the lowest cumulative score to par. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score on the back 9 of the first round. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more eagles thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records more birdies thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records fewer bogeys thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 Irish Open is cancelled, postponed after September 27, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, or if an official Round 1 leader has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the event organizer or governing body.

Kalshi

Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified golfer is the sole leader at the end of Round 1 of the 2026 Amgen Irish Open. If multiple golfers are tied for the lead, 'Yes' positions pay $1 divided by the number of tied participants (rounded down to the nearest cent), while 'No' positions pay the complement of that amount. The markets are independent of official PGA affiliations, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probabilities associated with various golfers being the first round leader at the Irish Open. It aggregates data from both platforms to provide a consensus view of who is favored to lead after the initial round. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms is $1,804,511, with $624,322 traded in the last 24 hours. The dashboard displays the implied probabilities and allows users to compare how different players are perceived across these prediction markets. This provides a unique perspective beyond traditional odds, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd.

Several signals could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Any news regarding golfer form, injuries, or changes to playing conditions (like weather forecasts) could cause shifts in probabilities. Unexpected withdrawals from key players would also be a major catalyst. Live leaderboard updates during the first round will be crucial, as real-time performance directly influences trader sentiment. Furthermore, any significant bets placed on Polymarket or Kalshi could indicate informed trading activity and move the market accordingly. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding the dynamics of this market.