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399,592

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30,097

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2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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39%

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61%

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DP World Tour: European Masters First Round Leader
kalshi
polymarket

DP World Tour: European Masters First Round Leader

Volume:
$917,493

Ashun Wu

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 3, 2026

Closed: Sep 3, 2:49 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Ashun Wu

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$46,594
N/A
N/A
$23,363
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ashun Wu

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
98¢
N/A
$40
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Thriston Lawrence

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$116,153
N/A
N/A
$66,384
Settled
No
kalshi

Ryan Gerard

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$65,159
N/A
N/A
$60,317
Settled
No
kalshi

Matt Wallace

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$55,093
N/A
N/A
$54,290
Settled
No
kalshi

Patrick Reed

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$42,990
N/A
N/A
$42,963
Settled
No
kalshi

Todd Clements

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$32,796
N/A
N/A
$25,709
Settled
No
kalshi

Nicolai Hojgaard

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$26,469
N/A
N/A
$25,887
Settled
No
kalshi

Nacho Elvira

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25,558
N/A
N/A
$25,558
Settled
No
kalshi

Guido Migliozzi

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21,564
N/A
N/A
$21,564
Settled
No
polymarket

Guido Migliozzi

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jack Yule

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,389
N/A
N/A
$18,449
Settled
No
polymarket

Jack Yule

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Marco Penge

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,298
N/A
N/A
$20,220
Settled
No
kalshi

Fabrizio Zanotti

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19,689
N/A
N/A
$19,689
Settled
No
polymarket

Fabrizio Zanotti

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Harry Hall

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18,920
N/A
N/A
$18,649
Settled
No
polymarket

Harry Hall

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Marcus Helligkilde

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,926
N/A
N/A
$17,833
Settled
No
kalshi

Sudarshan Yellamaraju

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,192
N/A
N/A
$14,133
Settled
No
kalshi

Antoine Rozner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,885
N/A
N/A
$13,631
Settled
No
polymarket

Antoine Rozner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Sergio Garcia

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,850
N/A
N/A
$12,841
Settled
No
kalshi

Daniel Young

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,822
N/A
N/A
$11,672
Settled
No
polymarket

Daniel Young

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 284

Intro

This market tracks whether Alfredo Garcia-Heredia will lead the 2026 European Masters golf tournament after the first round of play. Currently, the consensus probability across Kalshi and Polymarket gives Alfredo Garcia-Heredia a 100.0% chance of achieving this, tied with J. C. Ritchie at 100.0%. Resolution will be based on official results published by the event organizer or governing body (European Tour), determined by the lowest cumulative score to par. Keep an eye on the first round tee times beginning September 3, 2026, as initial performance will heavily influence outcomes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use the same core logic for determining the first round leader, including tiebreakers and cancellation conditions, with Polymarket having an explicit 'Other' outcome for unresolved cases.Primary resolution logic: Official results published by the event organizer or governing body (European Tour)

Core resolution logic:

  • Leader is determined by lowest cumulative score to par after Round 1
  • Tiebreakers: back 9 score, eagles, birdies, bogeys, alphabetical order of last names
  • If tournament is canceled, postponed after September 20, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, or no leader declared by then, resolve according to platform-specific rules (Polymarket: 'Other', Kalshi: market-specific)

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tournament Cancellation: If the 2026 European Masters is canceled or postponed after September 20, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, Polymarket resolves to 'Other', while Kalshi markets resolve according to their individual terms
  • Unresolved Leader: If an official Round 1 leader has not been declared by September 20, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, Polymarket resolves to 'Other', while Kalshi markets resolve according to their individual terms
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately after the official declaration of the first round leader by the European Tour, or by September 20, 2026 at 11:59PM ET if no leader is declaredOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the player that finishes Round 1 of the main tournament at the 2026 European Masters with the lowest cumulative score to par. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score on the back 9 of the first round. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more eagles thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records more birdies thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records fewer bogeys thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 European Masters is cancelled, postponed after September 20, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, or if an official Round 1 leader has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the event organizer or governing body.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the leader at the end of Round 1 of the 2026 Omega European Masters. If a single golfer holds the sole lead, “Yes” positions for that golfer’s market pay out $1, while “No” positions pay $0. If multiple golfers are tied for the lead, “Yes” positions pay $1 divided equally among all tied leaders (rounded down to the nearest cent), and “No” positions pay the remainder of the $1 stake (calculated as $1 minus the collective “Yes” payout). All markets explicitly disclaim any official affiliation with the PGA, and all referenced trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the European Masters first-round leader market aggregates real-time data from multiple venues, showing how traders across Polymarket and Kalshi price the likelihood of each golfer taking the lead after the opening round. It displays current probabilities, volume of $917,493, and 24-hour volume of $611,891, giving you a consensus view of market sentiment as the tournament begins.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary because each venue attracts distinct trader bases and uses unique liquidity models. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform might see heavier betting on certain golfers based on regional interest or recent form, shifting its implied probability. Additionally, differences in available volume — such as $917,493 versus $611,891 — can amplify price swings.