TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Yandex (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group D
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Virtus.pro vs Team Yandex?

Volume:
$245,649

Team Yandex

 - Kalshi

Team Yandex - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 10, 2026

Closed: Jul 9, 4:19 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Team Yandex

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,937
N/A
N/A
$4,029
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Game 1 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$114,097
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Game 2 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$110,193
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Virtus.pro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,844
N/A
N/A
$11,726
Settled
No
polymarket

Match Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,507
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,045
N/A
N/A
$969
Settled
No
polymarket

First Blood in Game 1?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ends in Daytime

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
19¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Both Teams Beat Roshan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Both Teams Destroy Barracks

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Any Player Ultra Kill

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Any Player Rampage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ends in Daytime

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
19¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Both Teams Beat Roshan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Both Teams Destroy Barracks

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Any Player Ultra Kill

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Any Player Rampage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

First Blood in Game 2?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
20¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 27

Description

This event group covers a Best-of-2 Dota 2 match between Virtus.pro and Team Yandex at the Esports World Cup Group D, scheduled for July 9, 2026 at 12:30 PM EDT. Markets span match outcome (BO2 winner), individual game winners (Game 1 and Game 2), and in-game events (day/night cycle timing, Roshan kills, barracks destruction, Ultra Kills, and Rampages).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's match-outcome market contains a logical contradiction: all three possible outcomes (Team Yandex win, Virtus.pro win, Tie) are mapped to 'Yes', making the market unresolvable as a predictive instrument. Polymarket's BO2 market uses standard binary logic (team wins series or doesn't). Kalshi also lacks game-level markets, creating scope fragmentation.Hero tip: Avoid trading on Kalshi's match-outcome market—it will resolve to Yes regardless of the actual result. Trade only on Polymarket's Game 1, Game 2, and BO2 markets, which have coherent logic. For in-game events (Roshan, barracks, Ultra Kill, Rampage, daytime), both platforms use identical DotaBuff-based resolution, so those markets are safe.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Match-outcome market states: 'If Team Yandex wins... Yes. If Virtus.pro wins... Yes. If Tie wins... Yes.' This is logically incoherent—all outcomes resolve to Yes, rendering the market non-functional. No game-level granularity provided.
  • Polymarket: Game 1 Winner: resolves to 'Virtus.pro' or 'Team Yandex' based on actual game result; 50-50 if not completed or canceled. Game 2 Winner: same logic. BO2 Market: resolves to series winner (1–0 or 2–0); 50-50 on tie, cancel, or forfeit. All use DotaBuff as primary source with 2-hour video-evidence fallback.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Virtus.pro and Team Yandex in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 9 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Virtus.pro" if Virtus.pro win the match against Team Yandex. This market will resolve to "Team Yandex" if Team Yandex win the match against Virtus.pro. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the outcome of the Team Yandex vs. Virtus.pro Dota 2 match scheduled for July 9, 2026 at 12:30 PM EDT at Esports World Cup 2026. Each potential match outcome—Team Yandex victory, Virtus.pro victory, or a tie—corresponds to a separate market that resolves to Yes if that outcome occurs. The match result at the tournament will be the sole determinant of resolution.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here differ from traditional sportsbooks in mechanism and incentive structure. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract a fixed margin; prediction markets rely on peer-to-peer trading, where prices emerge from collective trader belief. This market-driven approach often reflects sharper, less biased estimates because traders risk real capital on accuracy. However, sportsbook odds benefit from professional oddsmakers' expertise and real-time adjustment. Comparing this market's consensus odds to major sportsbook lines can reveal where public perception diverges from professional assessment.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Platform differences in liquidity, user base composition, and market structure can create price gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi attract different trader demographics and risk appetites, leading to varied probability estimates. Liquidity depth also varies—lower volume on one platform may result in wider bid-ask spreads and less efficient pricing. Additionally, each platform's fee structure and settlement rules influence how traders value outcomes. These divergences typically narrow as the event date approaches and arbitrage traders exploit mispricings, but they persist when information asymmetry or platform-specific constraints limit cross-platform trading.

Team roster changes, recent tournament performance, and head-to-head matchup history significantly influence trader positioning. Patch updates to Dota 2 can shift meta dynamics and alter perceived team strengths. Injury or unavailability of key players, coaching changes, or public statements from team leadership may trigger repricing. Pre-match analysis from esports commentators and pro player predictions often catalyze volume spikes and odds shifts. Live-game developments during the best-of-two series itself will drive rapid market movement, especially if one team secures an early lead or demonstrates unexpected strategic innovation.