TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Game 2 Winner
- Polymarket
Game 2 Winner - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 8, 2026
Closed: Jul 8, 4:40 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether both teams will defeat Roshan at least once during Game 2 of the Team Spirit versus Team Nemesis Best-of-2 match in Dota 2's Esports World Cup Group C. Across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless, the aggregated consensus stands at 100.0%, indicating near-universal expectation that both squads will achieve this in-game milestone. Resolution will be determined by Dotabuff records. Watch for the match scheduled July 8, 2026 at 10:00 AM EDT to settle this outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi's series outcome market lacks explicit tie and cancellation handling, creating ambiguity. Polymarket and Limitless diverge on how to treat match cancellations and pre-series forfeits, though both align on mid-series forfeit = declared winner.Hero tip: For the BO2 series winner (Polymarket market 6), expect 50-50 resolution if the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or is delayed >7 days without play. For individual game winners (Polymarket markets 1-2, Limitless markets 1-4), both platforms resolve to the declared winner if a forfeit occurs mid-game, but Polymarket explicitly 50-50s if the match never starts. Kalshi's market is unclear on these scenarios—treat with caution.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Series outcome market resolves YES for Team Nemesis win, Team Spirit win, or Tie. No explicit cancellation, delay, or forfeit clause provided. Quote: 'If Team Nemesis wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Team Spirit wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' Ambiguity: unclear what happens if match is canceled or delayed indefinitely.
- Limitless: Team-specific markets (Spirit/Nemesis/Draw) resolve YES if that team/outcome occurs, NO otherwise. Forfeit/disqualification resolves to declared winner. Cancellation/delay >7 days without result = 'Other'. Quote: 'If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner... If the match is not completed with an official result by August 8, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to Other.' No explicit tie-resolution mechanism for the BO2 series itself.
- Polymarket (BO2 Series, Market 6): Resolves to Team Spirit or Team Nemesis if either wins the series. Resolves 50-50 if canceled, ends in tie, delayed >7 days without winner, or if forfeit/disqualification occurs before series start. Mid-series forfeit = declared winner. Quote: 'If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.'
- Polymarket (Individual Game Winners, Markets 1-2): Resolves to Team Spirit or Team Nemesis if either wins Game 1/2. Resolves 50-50 if game not completed, canceled, or delayed >7 days without play. Mid-game forfeit with winner determined = declared winner. Quote: 'If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50.'
Polymarket
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Team Spirit and Team Nemesis in the Esports World Cup Group C, initially scheduled for July 8 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win the match against Team Nemesis. This market will resolve to "Team Nemesis" if Team Nemesis win the match against Team Spirit. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the outcome of the Team Nemesis vs. Team Spirit Dota 2 match scheduled for July 8, 2026 at 10:00 AM EDT during Esports World Cup 2026. Each possible match outcome—Team Nemesis victory, Team Spirit victory, or a tie—resolves its corresponding market to Yes. The tournament result directly determines which team's market resolves affirmatively.
Limitless
This market refers to the match between Team Spirit and Team Nemesis in the Esports World Cup 2026, scheduled for Jul 8, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by August 8, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under distinct regulatory frameworks, fee structures, and user bases, which naturally influences how traders price identical outcomes. Kalshi and Limitless may attract different participant demographics—some favoring one interface or liquidity pool over another. Order flow timing, market depth, and platform-specific incentives can also create temporary price gaps. These divergences typically narrow as arbitrageurs exploit the spread, but windows of opportunity may persist during low-liquidity periods or when news breaks unevenly across platforms.
