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Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs
polymarket
kalshi

Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Volume:
$191,588

Team Resilience

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 8:49 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Team Resilience

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,861
N/A
N/A
$9,516
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Match Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37,436
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Team Refuser (+1.5)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,167
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Any Player Ultra Kill

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
20¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

First Blood in Game 2?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
20¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ends in Daytime

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
20¢
N/A
$120
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
18.9¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
19.9¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Any Player Rampage

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
20¢
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Game 2 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$56,286
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Game 1 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$41,727
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Team Refuser

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$38,983
N/A
N/A
$37,680
Settled
No
polymarket

First Blood in Game 1?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$110
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Games

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$93
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
99.7¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Any Player Rampage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Both Teams Destroy Barracks

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ends in Daytime

View
50%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Both Teams Destroy Barracks

View
50%
Yes 50¢No 99¢
99¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Any Player Ultra Kill

View
50%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 34

Description

This event group covers a Best-of-3 Dota 2 match between Team Refuser and Team Resilience in The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs (scheduled June 16, 2026, 6:00 AM EDT). Markets span series outcome, individual game winners, and in-game mechanics (barracks destruction, Roshan kills, day/night cycle timing, and multi-kill achievements across all three potential games).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi series outcome markets contain a logical contradiction: both Team Resilience winning and Team Refuser winning are stated to resolve to Yes, making the market binary-unresolvable. Additionally, Kalshi references tournament-level outcome ("wins The International China Closed Qualifier 2026") rather than match-level outcome, creating scope ambiguity absent from Polymarket.Hero tip: Kalshi markets 1-2 are currently unresolvable due to logical contradiction. Do not trade these until the platform issues a clarification or amendment. All Polymarket markets (3-37) have internally consistent, testable resolution logic tied to DotaBuff match records and observable in-game events. Prioritize Polymarket for this event group.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Markets 1-2 state: 'If Team Resilience wins... then Yes' AND 'If Team Refuser wins... then Yes.' This is a logical contradiction in a binary market. Additionally, resolution is tied to winning 'The International China Closed Qualifier 2026' (tournament outcome), not the specific match outcome, creating scope ambiguity. Key quote: 'If Team Resilience wins The International China Closed Qualifier 2026... then the market resolves to Yes. If Team Refuser wins The International China Closed Qualifier 2026... then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Markets 3-37 consistently resolve based on the specific match outcome (series winner, individual game winners, in-game mechanics). Binary and multi-outcome markets have clear, mutually exclusive resolution paths. All markets reference DotaBuff as primary source with 2-hour publication window and 7-day delay threshold. Forfeit, disqualification, and walkover conditions are explicitly handled. Key quote (Market 36): 'This market will resolve to Team Refuser if Team Refuser win the match against Team Resilience. This market will resolve to Team Resilience if Team Resilience win the match against Team Refuser.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between Team Refuser and Team Resilience in the The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 16 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Refuser" if Team Refuser win the match against Team Resilience. This market will resolve to "Team Resilience" if Team Resilience win the match against Team Refuser. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the outcome of the Dota 2 match between Team Resilience and Team Refuser scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 6:00 AM EDT as part of The International China Closed Qualifier 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Team Resilience wins the match. The market also resolves to Yes if Team Refuser wins the match. Both possible match outcomes trigger a Yes resolution, meaning this event will resolve affirmatively regardless of which team prevails.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market data on the Refuser vs Resilience International China qualifier across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking consensus odds on match outcomes and in-game events. Traders on both platforms price their views of which team advances through the playoffs, with real-time odds reflecting aggregate belief. The cross-platform view reveals how different market structures and trader bases converge or diverge on the same competitive matchup, offering a unified lens on community confidence in each team's performance.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed odds set by a bookmaker. Sportsbooks apply margins and limits; prediction markets reflect pure supply and demand from traders wagering real capital. For esports events like this one, prediction market odds often react faster to roster changes, scrim results, and community sentiment, while traditional sportsbooks may lag or offer limited liquidity on niche Dota 2 qualifiers. Both aim to price true probability, but market structure creates different efficiency profiles.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, regulatory frameworks, and contract designs. Kalshi's binary structure may appeal to directional bettors, while Polymarket's broader outcome menu—including specific in-game events—draws players focused on granular predictions. Liquidity concentration varies by platform; if one venue has deeper order books, prices may lead or lag the other. Arbitrage opportunities between them are typically small but can persist due to withdrawal friction, fee structures, and regional trader access patterns.

Key catalysts include roster announcements, player substitutions, or injury news affecting either team's lineup. Scrim results and recent tournament performances in other qualifiers often shift trader sentiment. Patch updates to Dota 2 can reshape hero viability and team preparation timelines. Media coverage, expert analysis, and community discussion on social platforms influence retail trader positioning. Bracket seeding changes or scheduling delays may also trigger repricing as the match date approaches and new information surfaces.