TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Best-of-2 Dota 2 match between Team Falcons and Natus Vincere in DreamLeague Stage 1 Group B, scheduled for February 17, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Markets track the overall match winner, Game 1 winner, and Game 2 winner across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi frames resolution around tournament outcome (winning DreamLeague 2026) rather than direct match result, while Polymarket resolves directly on match winner with explicit tie and cancellation rules. Additionally, Polymarket uses multiple resolution sources (Dotabuff for overall match, Twitch for individual games) with different fallback windows.Hero Tip:
On Polymarket, the match must complete within 7 days of Feb 17 to avoid 50-50 resolution. On Kalshi, verify whether a match win is sufficient or if tournament advancement is also required. Use Dotabuff as the authoritative source for Polymarket overall match resolution, and Twitch for individual game results with a 12-hour publication window before credible reporting fallback applies.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Resolves to Yes if either team wins the match, but the condition is nested within a tournament outcome frame (If Natus Vincere wins DreamLeague 2026, then the match resolves Yes). This creates ambiguity: does the match result alone trigger Yes, or must the team also advance in the tournament? Key Quote: 'If Natus Vincere wins DreamLeague 2026: Natus Vincere vs. Team Falcons Dota 2 match originally scheduled for Feb 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Three distinct markets: (1) Overall match resolves to Team Falcons or Natus Vincere based on match winner, or 50-50 if canceled, tied, delayed beyond 7 days, or forfeited before start. (2) Game 1 and Game 2 markets resolve to winner if completed, or 50-50 if not completed or match canceled/delayed beyond 7 days. Overall match uses Dotabuff; individual games use Twitch with 12-hour fallback to credible reporting. Key Quote: 'If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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