TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Match Winner
- Polymarket
Match Winner - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 5, 2026
Closed: Jul 5, 12:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This event group covers a Best-of-3 Dota 2 match between Spirit Academy and PuckChamp in the European Pro League Group A, scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 3:00 PM EDT. Markets span series outcome, individual game winners, and in-game statistics (barracks destruction, Roshan kills, Ultra Kills, Rampages, day/night cycle timing).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Series-level markets on Kalshi lack explicit forfeit and tie handling, while Polymarket and Limitless provide granular rules. Deadline divergence exists between Polymarket (7-day delay rule) and Limitless (hard July 29 cutoff). In-game stat markets are unified across all platforms.Hero tip: For Kalshi series markets (items 1-2), assume standard esports convention: if either team is declared winner by forfeit/disqualification, that team wins the market. For Polymarket and Limitless, mid-series forfeit with declared winner resolves to that winner. Monitor the July 29 deadline on Limitless markets; Polymarket uses a relative 7-day delay from scheduled date. In-game stat markets are safe to treat as unified—all apply 50-50 on game non-completion or series clinch before game is played.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Items 1-2 are binary YES markets resolving if PuckChamp or Spirit Academy wins the EPL 2026 match. No explicit forfeit, tie, or delay handling provided. Quote: 'If PuckChamp wins European Pro League 2026: PuckChamp vs. Spirit Academy Dota 2 match originally scheduled for Jun 29, 2026 at 3:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.' Ambiguity: unclear whether pre-match walkover counts as a 'win' or resolves 50-50.
- Polymarket: Item 6 (series winner) and items 26, 28 (game winners) apply consistent logic: resolves to winning team if match/game completes; 50-50 if canceled, tied, delayed >7 days without winner, or pre-match forfeit; resolves to declared winner if mid-series forfeit with winner determined. Quote: 'If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.' But: 'If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.'
- Limitless: Items 1-3 resolve YES if named team wins; resolves to declared winner on forfeit/disqualification regardless of match start; resolves OTHER if no official result by July 29, 2026 23:59 UTC. Quote: 'If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made.' Hard deadline: July 29, 2026 23:59 UTC (vs. Polymarket's 7-day relative delay).
Polymarket
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Spirit Academy and PuckChamp in the European Pro League Group A, initially scheduled for June 29 at 3:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Spirit Academy" if Spirit Academy win the match against PuckChamp. This market will resolve to "PuckChamp" if PuckChamp win the match against Spirit Academy. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
This event resolves based on the outcome of the PuckChamp vs. Spirit Academy Dota 2 match scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 3:00 PM EDT during the European Pro League 2026. The market resolves to Yes if either PuckChamp or Spirit Academy wins the match. Resolution is determined by the official result of the European Pro League 2026 competition for this specific matchup.
Limitless
This market refers to the match between Spirit Academy and PuckChamp in the European Pro League Season 39 2026, scheduled for Jun 29, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by July 29, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi serve different trader bases and operate under distinct rule sets. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket's focus on game totals versus Kalshi's winner-based contracts naturally creates pricing gaps, since totals and head-to-head outcomes are correlated but not identical. Platform-specific liquidity, fee structures, and user demographics also influence how quickly each market reacts to roster changes or recent team performance. Savvy traders monitor both venues to spot arbitrage opportunities or to find the odds that best match their own prediction.
Key catalysts include roster announcements, player injuries or stand-ins, recent tournament results, and head-to-head records between the teams. Patch updates to Dota 2 can shift hero viability and team preparation strategies. Media coverage highlighting team form, coaching changes, or internal disputes may also shift trader sentiment. In-game developments during earlier matches in the series will trigger sharp repricing as traders update their win probability estimates. Monitor esports news outlets and official league communications for announcements that could influence this market's trajectory.
