TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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MOUZ
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Limitless
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 8, 2026
Closed: Jul 8, 1:19 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether total kills across Game 1 of the REKONIX versus MOUZ Best-of-2 Dota 2 match will exceed 50.5. Aggregated across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless, the consensus probability for overs stands at 100.0%. Resolution will be determined by official kill statistics published on Dotabuff following the match. Watch for the match kickoff on July 8, 2026 at 10:00 AM EDT during Esports World Cup Group C, as in-game kill pace will directly determine settlement.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi's market is outcome-agnostic (all results = YES), creating a logical contradiction with Polymarket and Limitless, which are binary winner-determination markets. Additionally, timeout and forfeit handling diverges across all three platforms.Hero tip: Kalshi's market does not function as a prediction market—it confirms event occurrence, not outcome. Trade Polymarket or Limitless for directional exposure. Be aware that Polymarket uses a 7-day delay threshold while Limitless uses an August 8 deadline; if the match is delayed 6 days, Polymarket may resolve 50-50 while Limitless remains open.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Outcome-agnostic confirmation market. All three outcomes (MOUZ win, REKONIX win, Tie) resolve to YES. This is not a binary winner-determination contract. Quote: 'If MOUZ wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If REKONIX wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket (BO2 Series Market): Binary winner market: resolves REKONIX or MOUZ if a decisive winner emerges. Resolves 50-50 on cancellation, tie, or delay beyond 7 days without play beginning. Forfeits after match start resolve to declared winner; pre-match forfeits resolve 50-50. Quote: 'If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.'
- Limitless (Match Winner Markets): Three separate binary markets (REKONIX, MOUZ, Draw). Resolves to YES for declared winner in forfeit/disqualification scenarios. Timeout resolution: if no official result by August 8, 2026 23:59 UTC, resolves to OTHER. Quote: 'If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner... If the match is not completed with an official result by August 8, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to Other.'
- Polymarket (Game 1 & Game 2 Winner Markets): Binary per-game markets. Incomplete games resolve 50-50. Canceled or delayed beyond 7 days without play beginning resolve 50-50. Quote: 'If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50.'
- Polymarket (In-Game Statistics Markets): Daytime/Nighttime, Roshan, Barracks, Ultra Kill, Rampage, First Blood, and Kill Count markets all share consistent logic: incomplete games or games not played (due to series clinch, forfeit, or delay >7 days) resolve 50-50. Quote: 'If Game 1 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 1 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50.'
Polymarket
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between REKONIX and MOUZ in the Esports World Cup Group C, initially scheduled for July 8 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "REKONIX" if REKONIX win the match against MOUZ. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against REKONIX. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the outcome of the MOUZ vs. REKONIX Dota 2 match scheduled for July 8, 2026 at 10:00 AM EDT during Esports World Cup 2026. Each possible match outcome—MOUZ victory, REKONIX victory, or a tie—resolves its corresponding market to Yes. The tournament result directly determines which team's market resolves affirmatively.
Limitless
This market refers to the match between REKONIX and MOUZ in the Esports World Cup 2026, scheduled for Jul 8, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by August 8, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi may price this market differently due to variations in user base, liquidity depth, and settlement rule interpretation. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts traders with distinct risk tolerances and information sets, so the same event can command different odds across venues. Differences in trading volume, fee structures, and market-making activity also influence price discovery. Arbitrage traders often exploit these spreads, gradually narrowing gaps until both platforms converge on fair value.
Team roster changes, recent tournament results, and player performance trends are key catalysts that typically shift odds in esports markets. Injury announcements, coaching changes, or strategic meta shifts in the game itself can also trigger repricing. Pre-match interviews, scrim results, and betting action from professional players or insiders often signal directional conviction. As the match date approaches, any news about team preparation, travel delays, or technical issues may cause sharp moves in this market.
