TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Game 2 Winner
- Polymarket
Game 2 Winner - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 29, 2026
Closed: Jun 29, 6:25 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This event group covers a Best-of-3 Dota 2 match between Nemiga Gaming and Hive in the European Pro League Group A, scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT. Markets span match winner, individual game winners, series length, and in-game mechanics (Roshan kills, barracks destruction, day/night cycle timing, and multi-kill achievements).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi match-winner markets contain a logical contradiction (both teams cannot resolve YES). Polymarket and Limitless diverge on forfeit treatment: Polymarket resolves pre-match forfeits to 50-50, while Limitless resolves to the declared winner. Resolution source timing and fallback windows also differ across platforms.Hero tip: Avoid Kalshi match-winner markets entirely due to logical impossibility. On Polymarket, expect 50-50 resolution if the match is forfeited before play begins; on Limitless, the declared winner takes the market. For game-specific markets (Game 1/2/3 winners, in-game mechanics), all platforms align on DotaBuff as primary source with credible reporting fallback. Monitor the 2-hour DotaBuff publication window on Polymarket; if missed, consensus reporting becomes binding.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Match-winner markets state both "If Nemiga Gaming wins... YES" and "If Hive wins... YES," creating a logical impossibility. No explicit forfeit or cancellation treatment provided. These markets are fundamentally unresolvable as written.
- Polymarket: Match-winner and game-specific markets resolve 50-50 if cancelled, delayed beyond 7 days, or forfeited/disqualified before start. Completed forfeits (one team wins) resolve to the winner. Primary source is DotaBuff; credible reporting consensus applies if DotaBuff does not publish within 2 hours of event conclusion.
- Limitless: Match-winner markets resolve to the declared winner regardless of forfeit, disqualification, or walkover timing or match start status. Fallback to "Other" if no official result by July 29, 2026, 23:59 UTC (30-day window). No explicit 2-hour publication window or credible reporting fallback mentioned.
Polymarket
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Nemiga Gaming and Hive in the European Pro League Group A, initially scheduled for June 29 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Nemiga Gaming" if Nemiga Gaming win the match against Hive. This market will resolve to "Hive" if Hive win the match against Nemiga Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
This event resolves based on the result of the Hive vs. Nemiga Gaming Dota 2 match scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT during the European Pro League 2026 tournament. The market resolves to Yes if either Hive wins the match or if Nemiga Gaming wins the match. In either case, one of these outcomes will occur, ensuring the market resolves affirmatively upon completion of the scheduled match.
Limitless
This market refers to the match between Nemiga Gaming and Hive in the European Pro League Season 39 2026, scheduled for Jun 29, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by July 29, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates distinct liquidity pools, user bases, and fee structures. Kalshi and Polymarket attract different trader demographics—some favor one platform's interface, settlement speed, or regulatory framework. Order flow timing, market depth, and recent news interpretation can cause temporary price gaps. These differences typically narrow as arbitrageurs exploit spreads, but during volatile esports matchups, divergence may persist if one platform's users hold stronger conviction or react faster to roster changes or recent form.
Key catalysts include roster announcements, player injuries, recent tournament results, and team form leading into the fixture. Scrim results or public commentary from pro players and analysts can shift trader conviction rapidly. Patch updates to Dota 2 may alter meta strategy and perceived team strength. Live match events—early kills, map control, or draft surprises—will drive intraday volatility. News of venue changes, broadcast delays, or administrative issues could also trigger repricing as traders reassess execution risk.
