TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Game 2 Winner
- Polymarket
Game 2 Winner - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 26, 2026
Closed: Jun 26, 12:20 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether both Natus Vincere and MOUZ will successfully defeat Roshan during Game 2 of their Best-of-3 matchup in the International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Lower Bracket Round 2. The aggregated consensus across Limitless, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict stands at 100.0%, indicating near-universal expectation that both teams will achieve this objective. Resolution will be determined via Dotabuff official match records. Watch for the match scheduled June 26, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET, as the actual game outcomes will determine whether this in-game statistic materializes as predicted.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Forfeit and walkover treatment differs between match-winner markets (Limitless, Predict, Kalshi) and game-level markets (Polymarket). Match-winner markets resolve to the declared winner regardless of forfeit status; game-level markets resolve 50-50 if the game is never played due to forfeit/disqualification/walkover.Hero tip: If a team forfeits before play begins, match-winner markets on Limitless/Predict resolve to the winning team, but Polymarket game-level markets (First Blood, Ultra Kill, Roshan, etc.) resolve 50-50. Series-level markets (Games Total, Handicap) count forfeit-won matches as completed. Monitor forfeit announcements closely and cross-check platform treatment before settlement.Critical divergence points:
- Limitless: Match winner resolves to the team declared winner if either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, regardless of whether the match has started. Key quote: 'If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made.'
- Predict: Match winner resolves to the declared winner if match begins and one team wins due to opponent forfeiture/disqualification/walkover. However, if match ends in forfeit/disqualification/walkover before start, resolves 50-50. Game-level markets (Game 1 Winner, First Blood, etc.) resolve 50-50 if game never played due to forfeit/disqualification/walkover. Key quote: 'If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.'
- Polymarket: Game-level markets (First Blood, Ultra Kill, Roshan, Barracks, etc.) resolve 50-50 if the game is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover. Series-level markets (Games Total O/U 2.5, Game Handicap) count forfeit-won games toward the total/handicap if match is completed. Key quote: 'If Game 1 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50.' and 'Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the total, provided that the match is completed.'
- Kalshi: Match winner resolves Yes if either team wins the match. No explicit forfeit clause provided; assumes standard competitive resolution (winner declared by tournament organizer). Minimal detail on edge cases.
Polymarket
This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket round 2 match between Natus Vincere and MOUZ in the The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 26 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against MOUZ. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against Natus Vincere. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
This event covers the outcome of the MOUZ vs. Natus Vincere match scheduled for June 26, 2026 at 7:00 AM EDT as part of The International Europe Closed Qualifier 2026. The match will be played in Dota 2, a team-based competitive video game. Resolution is based on the official match result as determined by the tournament organizers and broadcast. The winner of this match advances further in the European qualification bracket toward The International 2026.
Predict
This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket round 2 match between Natus Vincere and MOUZ in the The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 26 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against MOUZ. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against Natus Vincere. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Limitless
This market refers to the match between Natus Vincere and MOUZ in the The International Europe Closed Qualifier 2026, scheduled for Jun 26, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by July 26, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets and sportsbooks price outcomes differently because they operate under different incentives and constraints. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and manage risk, often incorporating a margin. Prediction markets like those tracked here rely on traders putting real capital at stake, which can surface sharper, less biased estimates of true probability. However, sportsbooks may have faster access to breaking news or injury reports, while prediction markets aggregate dispersed knowledge over time. Comparing the two can reveal where one market sees value the other has missed, though both reflect genuine uncertainty about this match.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader populations, liquidity levels, and fee structures, all of which influence how prices form. Polymarket and Kalshi may also have distinct user bases with varying levels of esports expertise or access to team information. Timing differences in when traders react to roster changes, recent form, or scrim results can create temporary gaps. Additionally, platform-specific rules around order types, minimum stakes, or market depth can shift how quickly prices converge. These differences are normal and often present arbitrage opportunities for alert traders.
Key catalysts include roster announcements or last-minute player substitutions, recent tournament results and team form, patch changes or map pool updates that favor one team's playstyle, and expert analysis or betting syndicate activity that signals new information. Injury or personal issues affecting star players can shift odds sharply. Pre-match scrimmage results or coach interviews may also influence trader sentiment. Media coverage highlighting one team's momentum or strategic innovations can trigger repricing. Watch for sudden volume spikes, which often precede significant moves as informed traders position ahead of new information.