TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 4, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This event group covers a best-of-three (BO3) Dota 2 match between Habibis and Invision in the European Pro League Group B, scheduled for July 4, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET. Markets span match winners (Game 1, Game 2, overall series), game count, handicap, and in-game mechanics (day/night cycle, Roshan kills, barracks destruction, Ultra Kills, Rampages) across Games 1–3.
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Habibis and Invision in the European Pro League Group B, initially scheduled for July 4 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Habibis" if Habibis win the match against Invision. This market will resolve to "Invision" if Invision win the match against Habibis. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market refers to the match between Habibis and Invision in the European Pro League Season 39 2026, scheduled for Jul 4, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by August 4, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."
Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price outcomes using different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds based on internal models and risk management, then adjust for betting flow. Prediction markets, by contrast, aggregate trader beliefs directly—the price reflects what thousands of participants collectively think will happen. This market-driven approach often produces sharper, more responsive odds than sportsbooks, especially for niche esports events. However, prediction market liquidity and sportsbook margins vary, so direct comparison requires checking both venues for the same event.
Polymarket and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, funding levels, and risk appetites, causing prices to diverge even when tracking the same outcome. Polymarket and Limitless may also have distinct fee structures, user interfaces, and liquidity pools, which influence how quickly prices adjust to new information. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these gaps, but temporary spreads persist due to withdrawal delays, platform-specific rules, and geographic or regulatory constraints. Monitoring both venues reveals where conviction is strongest and where opportunities may exist.
Team roster changes, player injuries, or last-minute substitutions can shift odds significantly before the match begins. Recent performance data, head-to-head records, and patch updates to the game itself may influence trader sentiment. Betting flow and large trades on either platform can trigger rapid repricing, especially as the event date approaches. Media coverage, expert predictions, and community discussion also shape market perception. Monitor official team announcements and esports news outlets for developments that could alter expectations.