TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Yakutou Brothers (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A
Description
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between GamerLegion and Yakutou Brothers in the ESL One Birmingham Group A, initially scheduled for March 22 at 10:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "GamerLegion" if GamerLegion win the match against Yakutou Brothers. This market will resolve to "Yakutou Brothers" if Yakutou Brothers win the match against GamerLegion. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Kalshi's market resolves YES for ANY outcome of the match (win, tie, or cancellation), making it logically incoherent. Polymarket markets are game-specific with detailed resolution criteria tied to actual match play and Dotabuff data.Hero Tip:
Avoid Kalshi's match outcome market entirely—it resolves YES regardless of result, rendering it unresolvable and unsuitable for trading. Use Polymarket's game-specific markets (Game 1/2 winners, kill counts, Roshan/barracks destruction, day/night cycle) for meaningful exposure to this matchup.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's core market (items 1–3) states the market resolves YES if 'GamerLegion wins ESL One Birmingham 2026', 'Tie wins ESL One Birmingham 2026', or 'Yakult's Brothers wins ESL One Birmingham 2026'—meaning YES for all three mutually exclusive outcomes. This is a logical contradiction that renders the market unresolvable. No coherent settlement value exists.
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard prediction market logic: Polymarket offers 21 distinct, resolvable markets covering match outcomes (Game 1/2 winners, series winner), in-game metrics (kills, Roshan/barracks destruction, Ultra Kills, Rampages), timing (day/night cycle), and first blood. Each market has mutually exclusive outcomes (YES/NO or team-specific) with clear resolution criteria tied to official Dotabuff data and 2-hour publication deadline. All markets include comprehensive edge cases (cancellation, forfeit, remake, incomplete games).
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