TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Match Winner
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Limitless
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 17, 2026
Closed: Jun 17, 5:30 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This event group covers a Best-of-3 Dota 2 match between Flame Team and 4ikibamboni in the European Pro League Group B, scheduled for June 15, 2026. Markets span match outcome, individual game winners, in-game mechanics (barracks destruction, Roshan kills, Ultra Kills, Rampages), day/night cycle timing, and series handicap.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets across both platforms apply identical resolution logic: DotaBuff official data as primary source, 2-hour fallback window, 7-day delay threshold, 50-50 for cancellation or incomplete series, and consistent treatment of forfeits, disqualifications, and walkovers.Primary resolution logic: Official DotaBuff (https://www.dotabuff.com); credible reporting and video evidence if DotaBuff does not publish within 2 hours of match conclusion.Core resolution logic:
- Match outcome (Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni BO3): resolves to series winner if completed; 50-50 if canceled, delayed beyond 7 days without play, or ends in forfeit before series completion.
- Individual game winners (Game 1, 2, 3): resolves to winning team if game is completed; 50-50 if game never played due to series clinch, forfeit, or match cancellation.
- In-game mechanics (barracks, Roshan, Ultra Kill, Rampage, day/night): resolves based on in-game events if game is played; 50-50 if game never played due to series clinch, forfeit, or match cancellation.
- Games Total (O/U 2.5): Over if 3+ games played; Under if fewer than 3 games played; 50-50 if match canceled, delayed beyond 7 days, or incomplete series due to forfeit.
- Game Handicap (4iki -1.5 vs Flame +1.5): 4ikibamboni wins if they win 2+ more games than Flame Team; otherwise Flame Team wins; 50-50 if match canceled, delayed beyond 7 days, ends in tie, or incomplete series due to forfeit.
- Forfeits, disqualifications, and walkovers count as completed games if the series is finished; if series is incomplete due to forfeit, market resolves 50-50.
- Day/night cycle resolution uses only the base Dota 2 day/night timer (5-minute alternation), not temporary hero ability effects.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Series clinch before Game 3: If one team wins 2-0, Game 3 never plays. All Game 3 markets resolve 50-50. Series outcome, Games Total (Under), and Handicap resolve based on the 2-0 result.
- Game begins but not completed; forfeit mid-game: If a game is abandoned mid-play and one team is declared winner, that game counts as completed. In-game mechanic markets (barracks, Roshan, kills) resolve based on state at stoppage; if condition not met, resolve No. If series is incomplete (e.g., 1-1 when forfeit occurs), series outcome resolves 50-50.
- Match canceled or delayed beyond 7 days: All markets resolve 50-50 if match is not played at all or delayed beyond 7 days from June 15, 2026 without play beginning.
- Game remade: Resolution is based on the remade game only; original game is disregarded.
- DotaBuff publication delay: If DotaBuff does not publish results within 2 hours of match conclusion, credible reporting (including video evidence) may be used as fallback.
Polymarket
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Flame Team and 4ikibamboni in the European Pro League Group B, initially scheduled for June 15 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Flame Team" if Flame Team win the match against 4ikibamboni. This market will resolve to "4ikibamboni" if 4ikibamboni win the match against Flame Team. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Limitless
This market refers to the match between Flame Team and 4ikibamboni in the European Pro League Season 38 2026, scheduled for Jun 15, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by July 15, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Limitless serve different trader bases and use distinct liquidity pools, leading to natural price divergence. Polymarket and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Limitless currently tracks a specific in-game event (rampage probability), while Polymarket focuses on the series winner, creating different risk exposures and market mechanics. Liquidity depth, user geography, and fee structures also influence how quickly each platform reprices in response to news or roster changes. These differences typically narrow as the match approaches, but traders can exploit temporary spreads by monitoring both platforms simultaneously.
Key catalysts include roster announcements, player injuries or stand-ins, recent tournament performance by either team, and meta shifts in the Dota 2 patch cycle. Scrim results or public statements from coaches often shift trader sentiment in the days before a match. In-game events during earlier Group B matches may reveal team form or strategic tendencies, influencing odds for this specific series. Additionally, betting volume spikes and sharp money movement on either Polymarket or Limitless can signal professional trader conviction, prompting retail traders to reassess their positions before the series begins.
