TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
%20scale(0.82)%20translate(-12.5%20-12.5)'%3e%3cpath%20fill='%23000'%20fill-rule='evenodd'%20d='M9.619%2012.69h12.995a1.382%201.382%200%200%200%200-2.76h-3.932l5.298-5.405.032-.032L22.08%202.56h-5.255V1.38c0-.76-.619-1.38-1.38-1.38H9.81c-.76%200-1.38.62-1.38%201.38V11.5c0%20.657.534%201.19%201.19%201.19m12.995-2.186h-5.3l5.89-6.01-1.139-1.139-5.813%205.933V1.38a.806.806%200%200%200-.805-.806.806.806%200%200%200-.805.806v9.545c0%20.656.533%201.19%201.189%201.19h6.783a.806.806%200%200%200%200-1.612'%20clip-rule='evenodd'/%3e%3cpath%20fill='%23000'%20fill-rule='evenodd'%20d='M14.393%2011.31H1.398a1.382%201.382%200%200%200%200%202.76H5.33L.032%2019.476%200%2019.507l1.931%201.933h5.255v1.18c0%20.76.619%201.38%201.379%201.38h5.638c.76%200%201.38-.62%201.38-1.38V12.5c0-.657-.534-1.19-1.19-1.19m.293%2011.31a.8.8%200%200%201-.788.805.797.797%200%200%201-.787-.805v-7.904l-5.69%205.928-1.113-1.139%205.764-6.005H6.884a.797.797%200%200%201-.787-.806c0-.444.353-.806.787-.806h6.638c.642%200%201.164.534%201.164%201.19z'%20clip-rule='evenodd'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e){kind=avatar}
Game 1 Winner
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Predict
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 13, 2026
Closed: Aug 13, 5:41 AM EST
Polymarket
Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)
Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)
Intro
This market tracks whether both Aurora and GamerLegion will beat the Roshan team in Game 1 of their Dota 2 match during the The International Group Stage. The aggregated consensus probability for this outcome stands at 99.5%. Data is drawn from Polymarket, Limitless, Predict, and Kalshi, with resolution based on official results from dotabuff.com. The key catalyst to monitor will be the match itself, scheduled for August 13, 2026, which will determine the final outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms agree on using dotabuff.com as the primary resolution source with credible reporting as a backup, and consistently apply 50-50 resolution for cancellations, forfeits, disqualifications, and incomplete games.Primary resolution logic: https://www.dotabuff.comCore resolution logic:
- Official results from dotabuff.com are the primary resolution source
- Credible reporting including video evidence is used if dotabuff.com does not publish within 2 hours
- Markets resolve to 50-50 for cancellations, forfeits, disqualifications, or when games are not completed as described
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Name Discrepancies: Minor name variations (abbreviations, sponsor tags, regional identifiers) are treated as the same team if clearly identifiable
- Incomplete Games: If a game is not completed but a winner is determined (forfeit/disqualification), the market resolves to the winning team; otherwise, it resolves to 50-50
- Remade Games: If a game is remade, resolution is based on the remade game only
Polymarket
This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between Aurora and GamerLegion in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 13 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win the match against GamerLegion. This market will resolve to "GamerLegion" if GamerLegion win the match against Aurora. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
If GamerLegion wins The International 2026: GamerLegion vs. Aurora Dota 2 match originally scheduled for Aug 13, 2026 at 1:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. If Aurora wins The International 2026: GamerLegion vs. Aurora Dota 2 match originally scheduled for Aug 13, 2026 at 1:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Predict
This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between Aurora and GamerLegion in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 13 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win the match against GamerLegion. This market will resolve to "GamerLegion" if GamerLegion win the match against Aurora. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Limitless
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Aurora and GamerLegion in the The International 2026, initially scheduled for August 13, 2026 UTC. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win the match against GamerLegion. This market will resolve to "GamerLegion" if GamerLegion win the match against Aurora. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, or the team is renamed or rebranded, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary because each venue attracts distinct trader bases and liquidity profiles. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. This often leads to different risk assessments and positioning, especially for niche esports events like this market. The way each platform handles order flow and fee structures also contributes to price gaps between the two.