TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
43-47m
- Polymarket
43-47m - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 15, 2026
Closed: Jun 15, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to how much "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (June 12 - June 14) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to how much "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (June 12 - June 14) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader conviction and often diverge from traditional box office analyst estimates. While analysts rely on historical trends, marketing spend, and comparable titles, prediction markets aggregate live trader beliefs updated continuously. For "Disclosure Day," compare the market's implied probability against major forecasting outlets and studio guidance. Prediction markets typically react faster to new information—such as trailer reception or competing releases—than published analyst reports, making them a dynamic alternative benchmark for opening weekend expectations.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office outcomes are priced as binary or categorical contracts reflecting the implied probability of each box office range. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 1 (or 0–100 cents), with the price directly representing the market's estimated chance of that outcome occurring. Volume and liquidity on Polymarket determine how easily you can enter or exit positions. Monitor the order book depth and recent trades to assess price stability and slippage before placing large orders on this event.
The "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office market resolves on Jun 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official opening weekend box office total reported by major industry sources. The specific outcome depends on which box office range or threshold the final number falls into, as defined by the market's outcome categories. Traders should monitor box office reporting closely as the weekend concludes to anticipate the final settlement.
Several catalysts can shift odds for "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office. Trailer releases, critic reviews, and social media sentiment often trigger sharp repricing. Competing releases or major entertainment news can redirect audience interest. Studio marketing intensity and celebrity interviews influence perceived demand. Real-world events or scheduling changes may alter opening weekend expectations. Additionally, early ticket sales data, preview screenings, and industry commentary closer to release typically drive significant volume and volatility. Track entertainment news outlets and social platforms for developments that could reshape trader conviction.
