TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
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2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
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2,632
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5
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61%
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 25, 2026
Closed: Jun 21, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to how much "Disclosure Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (June 19 - June 21) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to how much "Disclosure Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (June 19 - June 21) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like this one often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets from a diverse crowd rather than relying on a single methodology or expert opinion. Analysts may use historical box office models and studio guidance, while traders incorporate broader sentiment, social media buzz, and early ticket sales data. When this market shows significantly higher or lower odds than published forecasts, it may signal that traders have access to information analysts haven't yet incorporated, or that the crowd is pricing in different risk assumptions about the film's performance.
On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling shares tied to specific box office outcome ranges. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price reflects the collective willingness of participants to bet on each outcome, with higher prices indicating greater confidence in that result. As new information emerges—such as opening-weekend numbers or audience reviews—traders adjust their positions, moving the price up or down to reflect updated expectations about the film's second-weekend box office total.
This market resolves around Jun 21, 2026, once the second-weekend box office figures for the film are verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual domestic box office total for that weekend against the specified range or threshold defined in the market. Traders who correctly predicted the final result receive their payout based on the odds at which they entered their position.
Opening-weekend box office results are typically the strongest catalyst, as they provide concrete data about audience demand and word-of-mouth momentum. Critical reviews, social media sentiment, and competitor releases during the same period can also shift trader expectations. Major news about the film—such as casting changes, marketing campaigns, or unexpected industry developments—may influence how traders assess the likelihood of different second-weekend outcomes. Real-time ticket presales and early showtimes data can prompt repricing as resolution approaches.
