TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 10K
- Kalshi
Above 10K - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 21, 2026
Closed: Jun 21, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Bebe Rexha's album DIRTY BLONDE will exceed 45,000 Album Equivalent Units during the June 12–18, 2026 tracking week, a metric combining album sales, track sales, and streaming activity. On Kalshi, the probability of exceeding this threshold stands at 71.0%, while the probability of surpassing 10,000 units is 9.5%. Resolution will be determined by official Album Equivalent Units data for that tracking week. Watch for the official chart data release on June 21, 2026, which will settle this market.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on album equivalent units reported by Luminate Data for the specified tracking week in the U.S. market. Each threshold independently determines whether equivalent units exceeded that specific level, with results announced on the Sunday immediately following the June 12-18, 2026 tracking week. Luminate Data serves as the neutral provider of these metrics and does not endorse or participate in market outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-time trader consensus and can differ meaningfully from traditional music industry analyst forecasts. While analysts typically rely on historical comps, pre-order data, and artist momentum, prediction markets aggregate the collective judgment of traders with financial incentives to forecast accurately. Comparing Kalshi odds to published estimates from music chart analysts, industry publications, and label projections can reveal where the market expects upside or downside relative to expert consensus, helping identify potential market mispricings.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, DIRTY BLONDE: First Week Album Equivalent Units is priced as a binary or range-based contract where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different outcome brackets. The price of each outcome reflects the collective probability assigned by active traders. As new information emerges—such as streaming pre-release data, social media momentum, or chart positioning—traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down. The final settlement price is determined when first-week equivalent unit data is officially released and verified.
The DIRTY BLONDE: First Week Album Equivalent Units market resolves on Jun 21, 2026. Resolution is triggered once official first-week album equivalent unit data becomes available from authoritative music industry sources. The outcome is determined by the actual number of equivalent units accumulated during the first full week of the album's commercial release, measured according to standard industry definitions that combine physical sales, digital downloads, and streaming activity into a single metric.
Several catalysts could shift odds for DIRTY BLONDE: First Week Album Equivalent Units before resolution. Pre-release streaming numbers, playlist placements on major platforms, and social media engagement metrics often signal commercial momentum. Chart performance in early tracking weeks, radio airplay, and any viral moments or controversies can drive rapid repricing. Additionally, competitor album releases, marketing campaign effectiveness, and artist visibility through performances or media appearances all influence trader expectations. Real-time sales and streaming data released during the first week will create the most significant price movements as actual performance becomes clearer.
