TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 40,000 albums
- Kalshi
At least 40,000 albums - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 13, 2026
Closed: Jun 11, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Niall Horan's album Dinner Party will achieve at least 10,000 pure album sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart during the week immediately following its wide release. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 75.0%. Resolution will be determined by official Hits Daily Double chart data for the first full week after the album's wide release. Watch the album's first-week sales performance as reported by Hits Daily Double on the resolution date of June 12, 2026, which will determine the final market outcome.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the pure album sales figure for Niall Horan's "Dinner Party" during the week immediately following its wide release, as reported in the "Albums" column of the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart. Kalshi uses the Thursday-dated chart as the contract underlying, reflecting Hits Daily Double's current publication schedule. If data is unavailable or partially unavailable by June 19, 2026, all affected markets resolve to No.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money trader sentiment and often incorporate analyst projections, chart performance data, and comparable album benchmarks. While music industry analysts may issue sales forecasts based on pre-order velocity and historical comps, prediction markets aggregate dispersed information from traders actively wagering capital. Discrepancies between market odds and analyst estimates typically signal either new data entering the market or differing interpretations of release momentum. Monitoring both sources provides a fuller picture of expected first-week performance for Dinner Party.
The market resolves on Jun 12, 2026. Resolution is determined by official first-week pure album sales figures reported on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following Dinner Party's wide release. The outcome hinges on whether reported sales meet or exceed the 40,000-unit threshold. Traders should monitor chart announcements and industry publications for the official sales data that will settle this contract.
Key catalysts include pre-order velocity announcements, streaming performance metrics, radio airplay gains, and comparable album benchmarks. Major media coverage or artist promotion campaigns can shift trader expectations. Chart positioning of competing releases in the same week may affect Dinner Party's relative performance. Industry reports on consumer demand, playlist placements, and retail partnerships all influence perceived likelihood of hitting 40,000 sales. Additionally, any unexpected delays or changes to the release date or chart eligibility criteria could materially impact market pricing.
