TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 2, 11:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This market on Kalshi tracks whether the Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers will combine to score more than 8.5 runs in their professional baseball matchup. The leading outcome currently stands at 99.0% probability. Resolution is determined by the official combined run total from the game originally scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 8:05 PM EDT, as tracked by the resolution source. Watch for the final score announcement on July 3, 2026, when the market will settle based on the actual runs scored across the full game.
Resolution is determined by the total number of runs scored by both Detroit and Texas combined in their professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 8:05 PM EDT. Each strike resolves to Yes if the combined run total exceeds its specified threshold. The thresholds range from 1.5 runs through 11.5 runs in 1-run increments. A combined total of exactly 1.5 runs would resolve the Over 1.5 strike to No but the Over 0.5 strike to Yes (if it existed). Resolution occurs when the game concludes.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets like this one are driven by traders risking real capital on their forecasts. This market may price the total runs outcome differently than traditional sportsbooks, sometimes offering sharper or more reactive pricing as new information emerges closer to game time.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing yes or no outcomes on the total runs threshold. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective belief of all active traders at that moment. As new information surfaces—such as lineup changes or weather updates—traders adjust their positions, and the market price moves to reflect the updated consensus forecast of the final run total.
This market resolves around Jul 3, 2026, once the Detroit-Texas game concludes and the final run total is confirmed. The outcome is determined by the actual combined runs scored by both teams during the game, verified against credible public sources. Once the event is complete and the result is verifiable, this market will settle based on whether the final total falls on the correct side of the specified threshold.
Several factors can shift odds in this market before resolution. Injury announcements or roster changes to key players on either team may alter run-scoring expectations. Weather conditions at game time—wind speed, temperature, and humidity—can significantly impact ball carry and scoring. Bullpen availability, recent offensive trends, and starting pitcher performance history all influence trader positioning. Breaking news about player health or last-minute lineup adjustments typically triggers sharp repricing as traders react to new information.