TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 1, 4:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on the run differential between Detroit and New York Yankees in a professional baseball game scheduled for July 1, 2026. Bettors can wager on whether one team will win by various margin thresholds.
The market resolves based on the final run differential in the Detroit vs New York Y game originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 1:35 PM EDT. For New York Y, the market resolves to Yes if New York Y wins by more than 3.5 runs, more than 2.5 runs, or more than 1.5 runs. For Detroit, the market resolves to Yes if Detroit wins by more than 1.5 runs, more than 2.5 runs, or more than 3.5 runs. Each outcome is independent and resolves based on whether the specified team achieves the required margin of victory.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of traders who have real capital at stake. This market may show different implied probabilities than traditional sportsbooks, offering traders an alternative view of the spread outcome. Comparing the two can reveal where consensus differs or where value opportunities may exist.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks to buy or sell shares representing each possible outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective belief of market participants about the likelihood of the spread outcome. As new information emerges or trader sentiment shifts, prices adjust in real time, ensuring the market remains responsive to changing expectations about the game.
This market resolves around Jul 1, 2026, once the game concludes and the final spread result is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome will be confirmed based on the official final score and the specified spread, with no ambiguity in how the winner is determined. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome will receive their payout once resolution is complete and verified.
Key injury announcements, lineup changes, or roster updates for either team can shift market expectations significantly. Betting trends and sharp money movement at sportsbooks often precede prediction market moves, as professional bettors act on new information. Team performance in recent games, weather conditions on game day, and public sentiment around matchup narratives can all influence trader positioning. Breaking news about player availability or coaching decisions typically triggers rapid repricing as participants reassess the spread outcome.