TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 15, 11:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This baseball market predicts individual team run production in the Detroit Tigers versus Houston Astros game on June 15, 2026. Bettors wager on whether each team will score above specific run thresholds, with separate outcomes for Houston and Detroit.
Resolution is determined by the individual run totals for Houston and Detroit in their game originally scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 8:10 PM EDT. Houston outcomes resolve Yes if the Astros score at least the specified number of runs (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 runs corresponding to over 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, or 7.5 thresholds respectively). Detroit outcomes resolve Yes if the Tigers score at least the specified number of runs using the same threshold structure. Each team's outcomes are independent; multiple outcomes can resolve Yes if a team scores sufficiently.
Prediction market odds often reflect crowd sentiment and real-time trader positioning, whereas traditional sportsbooks set lines based on statistical models and risk management. In this market, prediction traders are pricing their collective view of total points scored, which may diverge from sportsbook totals due to different methodologies and incentive structures. Comparing the two can reveal whether the crowd expects higher or lower scoring than professional oddsmakers, offering insight into where smart money may be leaning.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different team total outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the collective probability assigned by active traders; as new information emerges or sentiment shifts, bids and asks adjust accordingly. This continuous pricing model ensures that the market stays responsive to breaking news, injury reports, or lineup changes leading up to the game.
This market resolves around Jun 16, 2026, once the game concludes and the final combined team totals are confirmed. The outcome is determined by the actual points scored by Detroit and Houston combined, verified against credible public sources such as official league records or major sports data providers. Resolution occurs automatically after the event is finalized and the data is locked in.
Key catalysts include injury announcements to star players, lineup changes, weather updates affecting outdoor play, and recent team performance trends. Trade deadline moves or coaching adjustments can also shift expectations around offensive firepower. As game day nears, final injury reports and pregame commentary from analysts often trigger sharp price movements. Additionally, any unexpected roster news or public statements from team management may cause traders to reassess their total-points projections.