TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 4, 4:05 PM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming MLB game between the Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers, scheduled for July 4 at 4:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Detroit Tigers" if the Detroit Tigers is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Texas Rangers" if the Texas Rangers is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers, scheduled for July 4 at 4:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Detroit Tigers" if the Detroit Tigers is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Texas Rangers" if the Texas Rangers is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and protect their margins, while prediction markets like this one aggregate the collective beliefs of traders who have real money at stake on outcomes. Prediction markets typically incorporate breaking news and sentiment shifts more dynamically than sportsbooks adjust their lines. For this matchup, comparing the odds on this market to major sportsbooks can reveal where the crowd of prediction traders sees edge relative to professional oddsmakers.
On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker that converts buy and sell orders into real-time odds for each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the cumulative trading activity and the current balance of capital backing each side. As more traders buy shares predicting a Tigers first-five victory, that outcome's price rises, and vice versa. This continuous price discovery mechanism ensures the market remains responsive to new information and shifts in trader conviction throughout the event window.
This market resolves around Jul 4, 2026, once the first five innings of the game are complete and the result is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by which team has the higher score after exactly five innings have been played. If both teams are tied after five innings, that outcome settles accordingly. Resolution occurs automatically once the game data is confirmed, allowing traders to collect winnings on correct predictions.
Several factors can shift odds in this market before the game begins and during the first five innings. Injury announcements or roster changes to either team's lineup or pitching staff can significantly alter expectations. Weather conditions at the stadium, such as wind direction and speed, may favor one team's style of play. Betting action and sharp money flowing into one side can trigger price movement as traders react to perceived edge. Real-time game developments—early runs, defensive plays, or pitching changes—will drive volatility as the first five innings unfold.