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Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings: Detroit Tigers or New York Yankees?

Volume:
$69,370

Detroit wins first 5 innings

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 8:44 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Detroit wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$34,441
N/A
N/A
$26,091
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Detroit Tigers

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
20¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

New York Y wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$29,516
N/A
N/A
$23,863
Settled
No
polymarket

New York Yankees

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,414
N/A
N/A
$5,286
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group resolves based on which team is winning (or if tied) at the conclusion of the 5th inning of the Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees MLB game scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 7:05 PM ET. The market outcome depends on the score after exactly 5 complete innings, with provisions for postponements, cancellations, and ties.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket presents three separate binary markets (Tigers, Yankees, Tie), while Kalshi's description suggests a single market that resolves Yes to any outcome. This is a scope and structure mismatch, not a logic contradiction on the core event (first 5 innings winner).Hero tip: Before trading, confirm whether Kalshi offers three separate binary markets or a single catch-all market. If it is a single market resolving Yes to all outcomes, it is not a valid comparison to Polymarket's three-way split and should be excluded from this group.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three independent binary markets. Each resolves to exactly one outcome: Tigers win (Yes/No), Yankees win (Yes/No), or Tie (Yes/No). Only one market resolves Yes. Resolution source is official MLB statistics or credible consensus if not published within 24 hours. Postponed games remain open until 5th inning completion; canceled games with no makeup resolve 50-50.
  • Kalshi: Single market structure described as resolving Yes if any of three outcomes occur (Yankees win, Tie, or Tigers win). This means the market always resolves Yes regardless of outcome, which is logically inconsistent with a prediction market. Likely represents three separate markets that need individual clarification.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees, scheduled for June 30 at 7:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Detroit Tigers" if the Detroit Tigers is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on which team has the higher score at the end of the fifth inning of the Detroit vs New York Yankees game scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 7:05 PM EDT. If the teams are tied after five innings, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and all team outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi derive odds directly from trader activity and real money at stake, reflecting crowd-sourced probability estimates rather than bookmaker margins. Sportsbooks, by contrast, set odds to balance liability and extract a built-in edge. This market often shows tighter spreads and faster price updates than traditional sportsbooks because traders profit by correcting mispricings instantly. For early-inning outcomes like this one, prediction markets can be especially efficient since the sample of historical data is smaller and public betting patterns less entrenched.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, fee structures, and liquidity pools. Polymarket may draw more sophisticated arbitrageurs, while Kalshi might see heavier retail participation or different contract specifications. Regulatory frameworks and market design—such as position limits, minimum order sizes, or tie-handling rules—also create natural pricing gaps. These differences persist because arbitrage costs (withdrawal delays, fees, slippage) make it uneconomical to fully equalize prices across platforms, allowing both to maintain independent price discovery.

Key catalysts include starting pitcher announcements, late-inning roster changes, and weather conditions that may favor one team's hitting or pitching style. Injury reports—especially to star hitters or the starting pitcher—can shift odds significantly. Pre-game betting action and sharp money flowing into sportsbooks often precedes prediction market repricing. Real-time game events like early runs, errors, or pitching changes during the first five innings will trigger rapid price adjustments as traders update their probability estimates based on live performance.