TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees - First 5 Innings Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the first 5 innings: Detroit Tigers or New York Yankees?

Volume:
$48,210

Detroit wins first 5 innings

 - Kalshi

Detroit wins first 5 innings - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:44 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Detroit wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$19,887
N/A
N/A
$16,974
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Detroit Tigers

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

New York Y wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24,160
N/A
N/A
$17,654
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,127
N/A
N/A
$3,863
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

New York Yankees

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers prediction markets on the outcome of the first 5 innings of the MLB game between the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 7:05 PM EDT. Markets track which team is winning (or if the game is tied) at the conclusion of the 5th inning.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market structure is logically incoherent: all three mutually exclusive outcomes (Yankees win, tie, Tigers win) are specified to resolve to Yes, making the market always resolve Yes and unresolvable as a prediction instrument. Polymarket correctly partitions outcomes into three separate markets.Hero tip: Do not trade on Kalshi. The market will resolve Yes regardless of the actual game result, rendering it useless for price discovery. Use only Polymarket's three separate markets (Tigers Win, Yankees Win, Draw) which properly reflect the outcome space.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Market structure specifies three conditions, all resolving to Yes: 'If New York Y wins the first 5 innings...then the market resolves to Yes. If Detroit and New York Y tie...then the market resolves to Yes. If Detroit wins the first 5 innings...then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a tautology where the market always resolves Yes.
  • Polymarket: Three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive outcomes: 'This market will resolve to Detroit Tigers if the Detroit Tigers is winning...resolve to New York Yankees if the New York Yankees is winning...resolve to Draw if the game is tied.' Outcomes are properly partitioned.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees, scheduled for June 29 at 7:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Detroit Tigers" if the Detroit Tigers is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

If Detroit wins the first 5 innings of the Detroit vs New York Y professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jun 29, 2026 at 7:05 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. If New York Y wins the first 5 innings of the Detroit vs New York Y professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jun 29, 2026 at 7:05 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. If Detroit and New York Y tie in the first 5 innings of the Detroit vs New York Y professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jun 29, 2026 at 7:05 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed odds set by a sportsbook. Traders buy and sell shares reflecting their belief in each outcome, with prices converging toward consensus probability. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, which apply margins and adjust lines for liability, these markets often reflect sharper, crowd-sourced estimates. However, prediction market liquidity and depth vary by event, so comparing this market's odds directly to a sportsbook requires checking both venues' current pricing and volume at the same moment.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Platform differences in user base, fee structure, and market design can create temporary price gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi attract distinct trader demographics and operate under different regulatory frameworks, leading to variations in how quickly information is priced in. Arbitrage opportunities may exist between the two venues, but transaction costs and withdrawal delays can prevent instant convergence. Additionally, each platform's liquidity depth and order-book composition influence how new trades move prices, so identical sentiment may resolve to different odds across venues.

Injury announcements, lineup changes, and starting pitcher confirmations typically drive significant repricing in early-inning markets. Weather conditions, ballpark factors, and recent team performance trends also influence trader sentiment. Breaking news about player availability or unexpected roster moves can shift odds rapidly. Additionally, as game time approaches, real-time betting action and sportsbook line movements often cascade into prediction markets, creating momentum. Monitor team news and official game updates closely, as even minor roster adjustments can alter the probability of which team leads after five innings.