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Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros - First 5 Innings Winner

Volume:
$11,705

Draw

 - Polymarket

Draw - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 17, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 8:10 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Draw

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Houston -1.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,392
N/A
N/A
$6,471
Settled
No
polymarket

Houston Astros

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$69
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Detroit -1.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,856
N/A
N/A
$1,460
Settled
No
kalshi

Detroit -2.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$796
N/A
N/A
$745
Settled
No
polymarket

Detroit Tigers

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$69
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Houston -2.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$518
N/A
N/A
$515
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event group covers the outcome of the first 5 innings of the MLB game between the Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 8:10 PM EDT. Markets track which team is ahead (or tied) after the completion of the 5th inning, with varying threshold definitions across platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses run-margin thresholds (>1.5 and >2.5 runs) to determine Yes resolution, while Polymarket resolves on simple lead status (any margin) or tie. Kalshi's four conditions are logically redundant and fail to cover all possible outcomes (e.g., a 2-run Houston win satisfies both condition 1 and 4, and ties are unaddressed).Hero tip: Request clarification from Kalshi on whether the four conditions are meant to be OR (any one triggers Yes) or AND (all must occur), and whether a tie or a 1-run margin resolves to No. Polymarket's approach is simpler: any lead wins, tie is Draw. If you trade both platforms, map Kalshi's thresholds to Polymarket outcomes to identify arbitrage or hedge opportunities.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves Yes if Houston wins by >1.5 runs, OR Detroit wins by >2.5 runs, OR Detroit wins by >1.5 runs, OR Houston wins by >2.5 runs. Conditions are redundant (conditions 1 and 4 overlap, as do 2 and 3). No explicit resolution for ties or margins of exactly 1.5-2.5 runs.
  • Polymarket: Resolves to Detroit Tigers if Detroit is winning at end of 5th inning (any margin), Houston Astros if Houston is winning (any margin), or Draw if tied. Margin size is irrelevant. Postponed games remain open until 5th inning is played; canceled games with no makeup resolve 50-50.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros, scheduled for June 16 at 8:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Detroit Tigers" if the Detroit Tigers is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

The Detroit vs Houston game scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 8:10 PM EDT will be evaluated based on the run differential after exactly five complete innings. Houston's outcomes (wins by more than 2.5 or 1.5 runs) resolve to Yes if Houston's run total exceeds Detroit's by the specified margin through five innings. Detroit's outcomes (wins by more than 2.5 or 1.5 runs) resolve to Yes if Detroit's run total exceeds Houston's by the specified margin through five innings. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and resolves after the rescheduled game concludes within two days. The score at the end of the fifth inning determines resolution, independent of the final game outcome. If the teams are tied after five innings, all spread outcomes resolve No.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer pricing rather than traditional sportsbook spreads. Traders directly set odds through supply and demand, often reflecting sharper early-game analysis than conventional books. This market's odds may diverge from standard sportsbook lines because prediction traders specialize in short-window events and adjust faster to lineup changes, weather, or injury news. The lack of a house edge in peer-to-peer markets can also produce tighter, more efficient pricing than retail-facing sportsbooks.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics and liquidity pools, leading to distinct price discovery. Polymarket's broader user base may emphasize binary win probability, while Kalshi's structure on this market focuses on margin-of-victory thresholds, creating different risk profiles. Settlement rule nuances, fee structures, and platform-specific incentives also influence how traders value early-inning outcomes. These differences typically narrow closer to game time as arbitrage traders exploit spreads.

Lineup announcements, starting pitcher changes, and weather updates typically shift early-inning odds significantly. Injury reports or late-game roster moves can alter bullpen availability and early-game strategy. Betting market action at sportsbooks often precedes prediction market moves, so monitoring sharp money flow provides early warning. Historical head-to-head performance in the first five innings, recent form, and ballpark factors also influence trader positioning. Real-time game action—early runs, errors, or momentum swings—will drive the most dramatic repricing once play begins.