TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros - First 5 Innings Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros - First 5 Innings Winner

Volume:
$31,121

Detroit wins first 5 innings

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 15, 10:04 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Detroit wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$13,596
N/A
N/A
$11,564
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Detroit Tigers

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Houston wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,454
N/A
N/A
$12,349
Settled
No
polymarket

Houston Astros

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,057
N/A
N/A
$2,659
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers the First 5 Innings Winner market for the Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros MLB game scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 8:10 PM EDT. The market resolves based on which team is ahead (or if tied) after exactly 5 complete innings of play.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market structure is logically incoherent, resolving YES for all three possible outcomes (Houston win, tie, Detroit win), leaving no valid NO resolution path. Polymarket correctly structures three mutually exclusive outcomes with proper resolution logic.Hero tip: Do not trade the Kalshi market—it is fundamentally unresolvable due to logical contradiction. Trade only on Polymarket, which offers three distinct categorical outcomes (Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros, Draw) with clear resolution criteria tied to official MLB statistics at the end of the 5th inning.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Market resolves YES if Houston wins first 5 innings, YES if tie occurs, and YES if Detroit wins first 5 innings. No NO resolution condition exists. Quote: 'If Houston wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Detroit and Houston tie... then the market resolves to Yes. If Detroit wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility.
  • Polymarket: Three separate markets with mutually exclusive categorical outcomes: resolves to Detroit Tigers if Detroit leads after 5 innings, Houston Astros if Houston leads after 5 innings, or Draw if tied. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Detroit Tigers if... Detroit Tigers is winning... This market will resolve to Houston Astros if... Houston Astros is winning... If the game is tied... this market will resolve to Draw.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros, scheduled for June 15 at 8:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Detroit Tigers" if the Detroit Tigers is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

This event resolves based on the score at the end of the fifth inning of the Detroit vs Houston game scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 8:10 PM EDT. If Detroit has more runs than Houston after five innings, the Detroit strike resolves Yes. If Houston has more runs than Detroit after five innings, the Houston strike resolves Yes. If both teams have the same number of runs after five innings, the Tie strike resolves Yes and all team strikes resolve No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on crowd-sourced pricing rather than traditional sportsbook models. Instead of a bookmaker setting fixed lines, thousands of traders buy and sell shares reflecting their belief in each outcome. This market-driven approach often produces sharper, more responsive odds than conventional sportsbooks, especially as new information emerges. However, prediction market liquidity and volume can vary, so comparing this market's prices to major sportsbooks helps validate whether the crowd consensus aligns with professional oddsmakers or signals an edge.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which naturally creates pricing gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi may also enforce slightly different rules around early-innings definitions or data sources, leading traders to weight information differently. Arbitrage opportunities arise when one platform prices a Tigers or Astros first-five victory significantly higher or lower than the other. Monitoring both venues helps you identify when mispricing occurs and where the broader market consensus truly lies.

Injury reports, lineup announcements, and starting pitcher confirmations typically shift odds in the days leading up to game time. Weather conditions at the stadium, recent team performance trends, and head-to-head early-inning statistics can all influence trader positioning. Breaking news about roster changes or tactical adjustments may trigger sharp movement as informed traders react faster than casual participants. Once the game begins, each run scored, out recorded, and baserunning event will ripple through this market in real time, making early innings especially volatile for active traders.