TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 5, 9:31 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Detroit City FC and Hartford Athletic, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios in the Detroit City FC versus Hartford Athletic USL Championship game scheduled for September 5, 2026. Resolution occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty phases. Four distinct outcome thresholds exist: Detroit City FC winning by more than 2.5 goals, Detroit City FC winning by more than 1.5 goals, Hartford Athletic winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Hartford Athletic winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each threshold represents a separate market that resolves positively if the corresponding condition is met; otherwise, it resolves negatively. The governing rules emphasize that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the league, and all branding remains property of respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by house biases or initial public perception. Sportsbooks typically set lines to balance betting action and ensure profit, while this market allows participants to directly express their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it may indicate that prediction market traders possess information or insights not fully incorporated into the sportsbook's pricing. However, both represent probabilities of the same underlying event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the spread. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by supply and demand; if more people believe an outcome is likely, they will buy contracts, driving up the price, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to accurately reflect the aggregate expectations of the market participants.
This market resolves around Sep 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread for the Detroit City FC vs Hartford Athletic match will be determined by the official result reported by the league. The market will settle to 100 if the spread is as predicted, or 0 if it is not. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will forfeit their investment. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Detroit City FC or Hartford Athletic would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in team form, weather forecasts impacting playing conditions, or even significant pre-match analysis from sports commentators could also shift market sentiment. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or tactical changes might also move the market. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of the teams' relative strengths and weaknesses has the potential to impact trading activity and price discovery.