TOTAL VOLUME:
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2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
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Above $500K
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Above $500K - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 21, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Jul 21, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
Derek Jeter's iconic 'The Dive' jersey from his 2004 season with the New York Yankees is being auctioned at Sotheby's on July 1, 2026. The jersey is historically significant as it was worn during games matched to 74 appearances and his 150th career home run. These markets track whether the final sale price will exceed various price thresholds.
Kalshi
The Derek Jeter 'The Dive' jersey sale price will be determined by the lot sold price displayed on the Sotheby's website following the live auction on July 1, 2026 at 10:00 EDT. Each market corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution to Yes if the hammer price exceeds that threshold. All prices are verified from the official Sotheby's "Lot Sold" listing. Should the item sell in a currency other than USD, the prevailing exchange rate at the time of sale will be applied to convert the final price to US dollars for comparison against the threshold. The sale price includes all applicable fees and charges as displayed by Sotheby's.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst estimates because they reflect real-money stakes and continuous price discovery rather than static reports. Traders in this market are incentivized to incorporate the latest auction house estimates, comparable sales data, and collector interest into their positions. When professional valuations or news about the item's condition or provenance surfaces, the market typically reprices faster than published forecasts update, giving traders an edge in spotting mispriced outcomes early.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different price ranges for the jersey's final sale value. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract represents a specific outcome band, and the market price reflects the collective belief of all active traders at any given moment. As new information emerges—auction house updates, comparable memorabilia sales, or shifts in collector appetite—traders adjust their positions, and the odds move to reflect the updated consensus.
This market resolves around Jul 21, 2026, once the auction concludes and the final sale price is confirmed. The outcome is determined by the verified hammer price at which the jersey sells, as reported by credible public sources covering the auction. Until that point, traders can adjust their positions based on pre-sale estimates, bidder interest, and any breaking news about the item's significance or condition.
Several catalysts could shift odds significantly before resolution. Auction house pre-sale estimates or revised valuations would immediately repricing trader expectations. Media coverage highlighting the jersey's historical significance or condition issues could sway collector demand. Comparable sales of other Derek Jeter memorabilia or high-profile sports auction results might reset benchmarks. Bidder registration data or early auction house commentary about expected competition could also trigger sharp moves as traders recalibrate their probability estimates.
