TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM - First Team to Score
polymarket
kalshi

Which team will score first?

Volume:
$17,041

Deportivo Toluca FC

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 22, 2026

Closed: Jul 21, 11:21 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Deportivo Toluca FC

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,372
N/A
N/A
$2,155
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Deportivo Toluca FC

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$123
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

No Goal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,924
N/A
N/A
$7,703
Settled
No
kalshi

Pumas UNAM

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,206
N/A
N/A
$2,746
Settled
No
polymarket

Pumas de la UNAM

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$48
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Neither

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$368
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers the first-team-to-score market for the Liga MX match between Deportivo Toluca FC and Pumas de la UNAM scheduled for July 21, 2026. The market resolves based on which team (if any) scores the first goal during the match.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket restricts resolution to 90 minutes plus stoppage time only, while Kalshi includes the entire match including extra time. This creates a scope mismatch that produces different outcomes if a goal is scored in extra time.Hero tip: If you are long 'Neither' on Polymarket and the match goes to extra time with a goal scored, you win on Polymarket but lose on Kalshi. Conversely, if you are long a team on Kalshi and they score in extra time, you win on Kalshi but lose on Polymarket (which resolves to 'Neither'). Understand your platform's scope before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Scope limited to first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shootouts explicitly excluded. Possible outcomes: Deportivo Toluca FC, Pumas de la UNAM, or Neither. Key Quote: 'This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.'
  • Kalshi: Scope covers entire game including regulation, stoppage, and any extra time periods. Binary Yes/No structure where Yes resolves if either team scores first at any point in the match. Key Quote: 'If Deportivo Toluca FC records the first goal during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods)...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming match between Deportivo Toluca FC and Pumas de la UNAM, scheduled for July 21, 2026 at 11:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Deportivo Toluca FC" if Deportivo Toluca FC are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Pumas de la UNAM" if Pumas de la UNAM are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on which team records the first goal during the entire match between Deportivo Toluca FC and Pumas UNAM, encompassing regulation time, stoppage time, and any extra time periods. Three outcomes are possible: Deportivo Toluca FC scores first, Pumas UNAM scores first, or no goal is scored during the match. If the first goal of the match is an own goal, resolution is determined by the team to which the goal is officially awarded. The market covers the complete duration of play as determined by official Liga MX rules and match officials.

Frequently asked questions

The first-goal scorer market aggregates trading activity across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking which team will score first in the Deportivo Toluca FC versus Pumas de la UNAM matchup. Traders on both venues place bets on this outcome, and the dashboard displays real-time price consensus, historical volume, and comparative odds. This market reflects collective prediction strength as participants weigh team form, player availability, and tactical setup. Cross-platform tracking reveals how different trader bases value the same event, offering insight into market confidence and potential arbitrage opportunities between venues.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed-odds bookmaking. Sportsbooks set odds and take the other side of your bet; prediction markets let traders set prices through supply and demand. This often results in sharper, more efficient pricing because traders risk real capital and face direct competition. However, prediction market liquidity can vary, and wide bid-ask spreads may emerge during low-volume periods. For major events, both venues typically converge toward similar implied probabilities, though timing and participant composition can create temporary divergences worth monitoring.

Team news—injuries, suspensions, or lineup changes—can significantly shift odds, especially if key attacking or defensive players are unavailable. Tactical announcements from either manager may influence trader expectations about pace and attacking intent. Recent form, head-to-head history, and home-field advantage all factor into pricing adjustments. Weather conditions on match day can affect play style and scoring likelihood. As the kickoff approaches, late-breaking roster updates or betting-market activity on related markets (such as total goals or final score) often cascade into this market, creating volatility and trading opportunities for alert participants.