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Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Deportivo Toluca FC vs FC Juárez?

Volume:
$305,434

Toluca wins by more than 1.5 goals

 - Kalshi

Toluca wins by more than 1.5 goals - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 31, 2026

Closed: Aug 30, 10:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Toluca wins by more than 1.5 goals

View
100%
46%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$90,425
N/A
N/A
$52,782
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Toluca wins by more than 2.5 goals

View
100%
67%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$65,549
N/A
N/A
$26,001
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Deportivo Toluca FC

View
100%
25%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$65,124
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Toluca wins by more than 3.5 goals

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$21,393
N/A
N/A
$9,229
Settled
Yes
polymarket

FC Juárez

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,377
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez)

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,967
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Toluca wins by more than 4.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,036
N/A
N/A
$9,317
Settled
No
kalshi

Juarez wins by more than 1.5 goals

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,024
N/A
N/A
$5,394
Settled
No
kalshi

Toluca wins by more than 5.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,487
N/A
N/A
$1,487
Settled
No
kalshi

Juarez wins by more than 2.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,051
N/A
N/A
$1,051
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks whether Deportivo Toluca FC will win their upcoming Liga MX match against FC Juárez. The aggregated consensus probability for a Deportivo Toluca FC win stands at 97.5% across Kalshi and Polymarket. Resolution will be determined by official statistics from the governing body or event organizers, with credible reporting consensus as a fallback if official data is unavailable within 2 hours post-match. The match result will be officially recognized after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time on August 30, 2026, with final resolution expected by August 31.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi resolve based on the same core criteria: the official match result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, using the same primary resolution source hierarchy.Primary resolution logic: Official statistics from the governing body or event organizers, with credible reporting consensus as a fallback if official data is unavailable within 2 hours post-match

Core resolution logic:

  • Markets resolve based on the match outcome after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time
  • Official governing body/event organizer statistics are the primary resolution source
  • Credible reporting consensus is used if official data is unavailable within 2 hours post-match
  • Revisions to officially declared results after market resolution do not affect settlement

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Postponement: Markets remain open until the match is completed; resolution occurs based on the final official result when the match is played
  • Cancellation: Polymarket 'Toluca win' and 'Juarez win' markets resolve No; Polymarket 'draw' market resolves Yes; Kalshi markets resolve according to their specific win-margin conditions (all resolve No if no match occurs)
Timing: Resolution occurs based on the official match result, with a 2-hour window for official data publication after the match concludesOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Liga MX game, scheduled for Sunday, August 30, 2026 between Deportivo Toluca FC and FC Juárez.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the goal differential between Toluca and Juarez after the full 90 minutes plus stoppage time of the match scheduled for August 30, 2026, excluding any extra time or penalty phases. A 'Yes' outcome for Toluca requires the team to win by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals (i.e., at least 3 or 2 goal margins respectively). Conversely, a 'Yes' outcome for Juarez requires the team to win by more than 1.5 goals or 2.5 goals (i.e., at least 2 or 3 goal margins respectively). Each market independently assesses the victory margin for the respective team against its specified threshold.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Toluca vs. Juárez match outcome market aggregates data from multiple venues, showing real-time consensus and volume trends. It tracks how traders across platforms price different possible results, offering a snapshot of collective sentiment. With a total volume of $305,434 and 24-hour volume of $299,272, it reflects market activity and shifts in expectation as the match approaches.

On Polymarket, this market reflects trader sentiment through dynamic pricing, often showing sharper or more volatile odds than traditional sportsbooks. Prediction markets like this one aggregate information from a global user base, which can create price differences compared to sportsbook lines that incorporate broker margins and regulatory adjustments. The gap between the two can widen based on trading volume and public sentiment shifts. For the Toluca vs. Juárez match outcome market, monitor both prediction market odds and sportsbook lines to spot potential value or early signals of changing expectations.