TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez
Volume:
$864,745
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers three interconnected prediction markets on the Liga MX professional soccer match between Deportivo Toluca FC and FC Juárez scheduled for March 8, 2026. Markets track whether Toluca wins, Juárez wins, or the match ends in a draw, all evaluated within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Cancellation handling diverges between platforms. Kalshi omits cancellation logic entirely, while Polymarket applies asymmetric resolution: win/loss outcomes resolve No on cancellation, but draw resolves Yes on cancellation.Hero Tip:
Monitor Liga MX official website (ligamx.net) for any postponement or cancellation announcements. If cancellation occurs, Polymarket's draw market will resolve Yes while win/loss markets resolve No, creating a potential arbitrage or hedge opportunity. Clarify Kalshi's cancellation protocol with support before match day to avoid settlement disputes.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: All three outcome markets (Toluca win, Juárez win, Tie) resolve Yes if the specified outcome occurs within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit cancellation or postponement clause provided. Key Quote: If [outcome] wins the match originally scheduled for Mar 8, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Polymarket: Three separate markets with asymmetric cancellation logic. Toluca win and Juárez win markets resolve No if game is canceled with no makeup. Draw market resolves Yes if game is canceled with no makeup. All three refer only to 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Key Quote: Win/loss: If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve No. Draw: If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve Yes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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