TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CD Guadalajara
Volume:
$285,969
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Liga MX soccer match between Deportivo Toluca FC and CD Guadalajara scheduled for February 28, 2026. Markets span three outcome types: Toluca win, draw, and Guadalajara win on Polymarket, plus margin-of-victory markets on Kalshi (1.5+ and 2.5+ goal margins for both teams).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket offers binary outcome markets while Kalshi offers margin-of-victory markets, representing different market scopes. Additionally, Polymarket's draw market contains a divergent cancellation clause (resolves YES on cancellation) versus win/loss markets (resolve NO on cancellation).Hero Tip:
Traders should be aware of the cancellation asymmetry on Polymarket. If the game is canceled with no makeup, the draw market resolves YES while Toluca win and Guadalajara win markets resolve NO. This creates a logical inconsistency. On Kalshi, no explicit cancellation clause is stated for margin markets—request clarification. All positions should account for this edge case before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three binary outcome markets (Toluca Win, Draw, Guadalajara Win) based on 90 minutes + stoppage time. Cancellation clause: win/loss markets resolve NO, but draw market resolves YES if game is canceled with no makeup. Key Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No"' (win/loss) vs. 'this market will resolve "Yes"' (draw).
- Kalshi: Four margin-of-victory markets (Toluca >1.5 goals, Toluca >2.5 goals, Guadalajara >1.5 goals, Guadalajara >2.5 goals) based on 90 minutes + stoppage time. No explicit cancellation or postponement clause provided in source data.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.