TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CD Guadalajara
polymarket
kalshi

Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CD Guadalajara

Volume:
$285,969

Deportivo Toluca FC

 - Polymarket

Deportivo Toluca FC - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 1, 2026

Closed: Feb 28, 6:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Deportivo Toluca FC

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$125,976
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Toluca wins by over 1.5 goals

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,316
N/A
N/A
$3,186
Settled
Yes
polymarket

CD Guadalajara

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$131,325
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CD Guadalajara)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,416
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Guadalajara wins by over 1.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,285
N/A
N/A
$3,199
Settled
No
kalshi

Toluca wins by over 2.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,047
N/A
N/A
$2,689
Settled
No
kalshi

Guadalajara wins by over 2.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$604
N/A
N/A
$604
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event group covers a Liga MX soccer match between Deportivo Toluca FC and CD Guadalajara scheduled for February 28, 2026. Markets span three outcome types: Toluca win, draw, and Guadalajara win on Polymarket, plus margin-of-victory markets on Kalshi (1.5+ and 2.5+ goal margins for both teams).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket offers binary outcome markets while Kalshi offers margin-of-victory markets, representing different market scopes. Additionally, Polymarket's draw market contains a divergent cancellation clause (resolves YES on cancellation) versus win/loss markets (resolve NO on cancellation).Hero tip: Traders should be aware of the cancellation asymmetry on Polymarket. If the game is canceled with no makeup, the draw market resolves YES while Toluca win and Guadalajara win markets resolve NO. This creates a logical inconsistency. On Kalshi, no explicit cancellation clause is stated for margin markets—request clarification. All positions should account for this edge case before settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three binary outcome markets (Toluca Win, Draw, Guadalajara Win) based on 90 minutes + stoppage time. Cancellation clause: win/loss markets resolve NO, but draw market resolves YES if game is canceled with no makeup. Key Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No"' (win/loss) vs. 'this market will resolve "Yes"' (draw).
  • Kalshi: Four margin-of-victory markets (Toluca >1.5 goals, Toluca >2.5 goals, Guadalajara >1.5 goals, Guadalajara >2.5 goals) based on 90 minutes + stoppage time. No explicit cancellation or postponement clause provided in source data.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.