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OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
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Closed: Sep 14, 11:19 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the point differential between Kansas City and Denver in their upcoming football game. Each market corresponds to a specific range of points by which either team could win. The outcome depends entirely on the final score of the game, including any overtime periods.
The markets resolve based on the point differential between Kansas City and Denver in their full game, including overtime, scheduled for September 14, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the winning team's point differential falls within the specified range for that market: exactly 0 points, between 1 to 6 points, between 7 to 14 points, or 15 or more points. If Kansas City wins by the exact margin described in any of the Kansas City-specific markets, or if Denver wins by the exact margin described in any of the Denver-specific markets, the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes'. All markets are independent, meaning each evaluates its own condition separately. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own information and beliefs. Often, you’ll find that this market incorporates information more quickly than sportsbooks, particularly as new information emerges. However, sportsbook odds are a useful benchmark for understanding broader expectations surrounding the game.
On Kalshi, the price of contracts for the NFL divisional matchup is determined by the forces of supply and demand. Traders actively buy and sell contracts, expressing their predictions about the winning margin. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. When more traders believe a certain margin is likely, they buy contracts representing that outcome, increasing its price. Conversely, if traders think an outcome is less probable, they sell, driving the price down. This continuous auction mechanism results in a market price that reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd, offering a probabilistic forecast of the game’s result.
This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning margin will be determined by the official result of the Denver vs Kansas City game, as reported by official league sources. The final score difference will be used to determine which contracts pay out, and the payout amount will depend on the contract’s price at resolution. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand the market’s outcome.
Numerous signals could influence this market leading up to its resolution around Sep 15, 2026. Unexpected injuries to star players on either team would be a major catalyst, potentially altering the perceived likelihood of each outcome. Significant changes in the weather forecast, particularly conditions favoring one team’s style of play, could also drive movement. Furthermore, any major news regarding team dynamics, such as changes in coaching staff or player suspensions, could impact trader behavior. Finally, shifts in public opinion, as reflected in traditional sports betting markets, may also influence the price of contracts.