TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 14, 11:19 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the number of passing completions achieved by a specific quarterback in an upcoming football game. Each market has a different threshold for completions, allowing participants to speculate on various performance levels. The outcomes depend solely on the quarterback's in-game statistics.
These markets evaluate whether Bo Nix achieves specific passing completion thresholds (ranging from 17 to 27 or more) during the Denver vs Kansas City Professional Football game scheduled for September 14, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct numerical threshold. If Bo Nix is active for the game but does not take any snaps, all markets settle at the fair market price determined before the game begins. Once Bo Nix takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the markets resolve strictly based on the total number of passing completions he records during the game, with each market resolving to 'Yes' if he meets or exceeds its respective threshold, and 'No' otherwise. These rules apply uniformly across all markets in this event.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines which can be influenced by factors like public perception or early betting action. Sportsbooks set lines to balance betting volume, while this market allows participants to directly express their beliefs about the likelihood of different outcomes. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – both sets of odds will adjust, but the dynamics driving those adjustments can vary significantly. It’s common to see this market converge with sportsbook odds closer to game time.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing completion totals. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective probability assessment of that outcome occurring. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by new information, analysis, and the overall sentiment of the traders participating in the market. A higher price indicates a lower probability, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passing completion statistics from the Denver vs Kansas City game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing completions achieved by both teams combined will be used to determine which contracts payout. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by a trusted sports data source, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding the starting quarterbacks for either team – injuries, illness, or changes in playing status – would likely cause substantial movement. Weather conditions, particularly strong winds or heavy rain, could affect passing game strategies and therefore influence the market. Late-breaking news about key wide receivers or offensive linemen could also shift expectations. Finally, any significant shifts in public perception or expert analysis regarding the likely game script could also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.