TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 14, 9:11 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting which Denver player or unit will score the first touchdown in an upcoming football game against Kansas City. Each market is tied to a specific player or the defensive unit, with outcomes determined by the game's early scoring events.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified Denver player or unit scores the first touchdown of the game. If the designated player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price before the game starts. Once the player takes a snap, the market outcome depends solely on whether they score the first touchdown. If no Denver touchdowns are scored, all player-specific markets resolve to No, and the No Denver Touchdown market resolves to Yes. These rules apply uniformly across all player and unit markets for this event.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd' and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals freely trading based on their own information and analysis. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly before significant events or breaking news. These differences can create opportunities for informed traders to potentially find value in either market, depending on their assessment of the probabilities involved.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy contracts predicting a specific outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price reflects the collective belief of all participants and dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand. This allows for a real-time assessment of probabilities as new information becomes available.
This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on which team scores the first touchdown in the game. Official game statistics and reporting will be used to determine the winning outcome. Traders who correctly predicted the first team to score will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution. The market will then close, and all contracts will be settled.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Denver or Kansas City offense would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also affect the expected game plan and scoring opportunities. Furthermore, any shifts in public perception or expert analysis regarding the teams' offensive capabilities could drive trading activity and move the market price. Unexpected strategic decisions announced by either coaching staff could also be a catalyst.