TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 14, 7:45 PM EST
Kalshi
The first market focuses on whether Atlanta can secure a dominant lead over Denver in the opening quarter of their August 14, 2026, game. It evaluates if Atlanta's performance is strong enough to win by more than 10.5 points within just the first 15 minutes of play.
Markets resolve based on the point differential in the first quarter of the specified game. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if Atlanta wins by more than the specified margin (10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points). A separate set of markets resolves if Denver wins by more than the specified margin (2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points). Only points scored during the first quarter count, and the markets are independent of each other.
Compared to traditional sportsbook lines, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a different risk assessment because they are driven purely by trader sentiment and betting volume rather than set by oddsmakers. While sportsbooks may adjust lines based on broader public betting patterns and historical data, this market prices in real time according to how active participants evaluate the likelihood of each team covering the first-quarter spread.
This market resolves around Aug 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is determined by the actual point differential in the first quarter of the game, and once official scores are published, the market settles automatically based on that data.
Injuries to key players, weather conditions on game day, and shifts in team performance leading up to the event can all impact this market. Additionally, any significant changes in betting volume or sentiment on Kalshi — especially from large trades — may cause rapid price movements as traders adjust their positions ahead of Aug 15, 2026.