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Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028)
kalshi

Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028)

May 15, 2026, 5:00 PM EST - Feb 1, 2029, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$49,133
Volume 24h:
$9,572
31%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$45,467
17%

53

 - Kalshi

53 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Feb 1, 2029

Will the Democratic party hold exactly 53 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

14%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 10¢ buys you 1,000 shares | Odds: 14% Total Payout: $1,000 | Net Profit: $900 Multiplier: 10.00x | ROI: 900% | APY: 172% 840 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

53

Trade
14%
6%
Yes 10¢No 91¢
1¢
N/A
$7,586
0.26%
88%
$7,457
2y 3mo 2w
active
kalshi

52

Trade
9%
8%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
N/A
$7,581
2%
122%
$7,531
2y 3mo 2w
active
kalshi

54

Trade
9%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
N/A
$6,350
0.16%
60%
$6,312
2y 3mo 2w
active
kalshi

51

Trade
9%
3%
Yes 10¢No 91¢
1¢
N/A
$4,834
0.82%
43%
$4,661
2y 3mo 2w
active
kalshi

48

Trade
9%
2%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
N/A
$144
14%
14%
$106
2y 3mo 2w
active
kalshi

Below 45

Trade
8%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
N/A
$1,456
0.14%
0.14%
$1,166
2y 3mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 56

Trade
8%
1%
Yes 22¢No 90¢
12¢
N/A
$1,046
391%
391%
$999
2y 3mo 2w
active
kalshi

55

Trade
7%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
N/A
$5,430
0.04%
68%
$5,417
2y 3mo 2w
active
kalshi

49

Trade
6%
2%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
N/A
$5,352
337%
7,934%
$4,118
2y 3mo 2w
active
kalshi

50

Trade
6%
1%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
N/A
$6,207
231%
2,219%
$4,586
2y 3mo 2w
active
kalshi

56

Trade
6%
10%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
N/A
$2,157
0.19%
0.19%
$2,153
2y 3mo 2w
active
kalshi

47

Trade
6%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
N/A
$30
150%
150%
$17
2y 3mo 2w
active
kalshi

45

Trade
5%
3%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
N/A
$931
0.22%
0.22%
$928
2y 3mo 2w
active
kalshi

46

Trade
5%
4%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
N/A
$30
150%
150%
$17
2y 3mo 2w
active
Total markets: 14

Intro

This market on Kalshi tracks whether the Democratic party will control more than 56 Senate seats when the 121st Congress convenes. The leading outcome—Democrats holding a Senate majority exceeding 56 seats—stands at 12.0%, while the probability of Democrats holding fewer than 45 seats is 11.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official Democratic Senate seat count on February 1, 2029, as stated by the resolution source. Watch the 2028 general election results on election day for the initial signal of how many seats Democrats will ultimately hold in the new Congress.

Kalshi

If the Democratic party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has exactly 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has exactly 46 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has exactly 47 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has exactly 48 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has exactly 49 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has exactly 50 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has exactly 51 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has exactly 52 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has exactly 53 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has exactly 54 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has exactly 55 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has exactly 56 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has above 56 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polling frequently focuses on stated voter intentions, while this market represents what individuals are willing to wager on the actual outcome. This difference can be particularly noticeable in elections where there is significant uncertainty or strong partisan sentiment. Historical data suggests that prediction markets can sometimes be more accurate than polls, especially when it comes to forecasting the final result, though both have their limitations and can diverge significantly. It's important to consider both sources of information when assessing the likely outcome of the 2028 Senate elections.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers set the odds by placing bids and asks. The price of each outcome reflects the collective belief of traders about its probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more trades occur, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. The market is designed to incentivize traders to reveal their true beliefs, leading to a potentially accurate forecast of the 2028 Senate control. The current volume indicates active participation and a degree of confidence in the displayed probabilities.

This market resolves around Feb 1, 2029, with the outcome confirmed once the final composition of the Senate following the 2028 elections is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results certified by the relevant election authorities. The market will determine which outcome—the exact number of Senate seats held by the Democratic party—is most accurate based on these official results. Traders will then be paid out according to their positions in the market.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market between now and its resolution. Major economic shifts, unexpected political scandals involving key candidates, and significant changes in national or regional demographics are all potential catalysts. Primary election results will offer early indications of candidate strength and party momentum. Furthermore, unforeseen geopolitical events or major policy debates could influence voter sentiment and, consequently, the trading activity in this market. Shifts in polling data, while not directly reflected in the market, could also indirectly affect trader behavior.