TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$87,997,338
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,395,155,069
395,664
Markets across
30,076
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,626
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of a specific music track during a defined week, measuring how widely it is consumed through streaming platforms. The outcome depends on whether the track reaches certain listener engagement thresholds within that period. Data from an independent measurement provider will determine the final result.
Kalshi
Multiple markets exist for the same musical track "Day and Night" by Carly Rae Jepsen, each corresponding to a different streaming threshold that must be exceeded during the tracking week of September 18, 2026, to September 24, 2026. All markets resolve based on U.S. streaming data reported by Luminate’s API as of 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday immediately following the tracking week. Luminate Data, LLC serves as a neutral metrics provider and does not endorse, verify, or participate in the prediction markets. The markets collectively assess varying levels of the track’s popularity, with thresholds ranging from 50,000 streams up to 10 million streams. Each market resolves to "Yes" if the reported streams meet or surpass its specific threshold; otherwise, it resolves to "No."
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of information and perspectives than traditional forecasts, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. While analysts may focus on specific factors, the market incorporates diverse viewpoints and real-time reactions to news and events. Discrepancies between market prices and analyst expectations can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty surrounding the event’s potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a margin system, requiring traders to deposit collateral to cover potential losses, ensuring the market remains solvent and functioning efficiently.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on which streaming service has the most viewed content during the first week of the Day and Night event. The platform will verify the results against publicly available data from reliable sources, ensuring a transparent and accurate determination of the winning outcome. Traders will then be paid out based on the final outcome and their positions in this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Major announcements regarding the Day and Night event, such as changes to the streaming schedule or featured content, could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected popularity of specific streams or artists could also drive price movements. Furthermore, any news related to the participating streaming services, including subscriber numbers or content deals, could impact the perceived probabilities of different outcomes in this market. Shifts in public opinion, as reflected in social media trends, might also play a role.
