TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 120K
- Kalshi
Above 120K - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 26, 2026
Closed: Jul 26, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Gracie Abrams' album Daughter From Hell will accumulate more than 40,000 Album Equivalent Units during its first tracking week from July 17–23, 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 99.0%. Album Equivalent Units combine album sales, track sales, and streaming activity into a single metric used by the music industry to measure commercial performance. Resolution will be determined by official first-week AEU data released following the July 17–23, 2026 tracking period, with results expected around July 26, 2026.
Kalshi
If Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams has above 10K Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams has above 20K Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams has above 30K Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams has above 40K Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams has above 50K Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams has above 60K Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams has above 70K Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams has above 80K Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams has above 90K Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams has above 100K Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams has above 110K Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams has above 120K Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams has above 130K Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams has above 140K Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams has above 150K Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams has above 170K Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams has above 190K Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams has above 210K Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams has above 230K Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams has above 250K Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced as a binary contract: will Daughter From Hell achieve above 150,000 Album Equivalent Units during July 17–23, 2026? On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current bid-ask spread reflects trader conviction around the threshold. Prices move based on new information—chart tracking updates, streaming data, retail pre-orders, and social sentiment—that traders believe will influence final AEU tallies. As the tracking week approaches and actual sales data emerges, price discovery accelerates, allowing traders to adjust positions before the market resolves.
The market resolves on Jul 26, 2026. Resolution is determined by official Album Equivalent Unit data for Gracie Abrams' Daughter From Hell during the July 17–23, 2026 tracking week. Album Equivalent Units combine album sales, track sales, and streaming activity into a single metric used by chart authorities. The outcome is binary: if reported AEUs exceed 150,000, the yes outcome wins; if they equal or fall below 150,000, the no outcome wins. Final figures are typically released by chart tracking services in the days following the tracking week close.
Key catalysts include playlist placements on major streaming services, which directly drive streaming-based AEU accumulation. Chart tracking updates and early sales reports from retailers can shift trader expectations. Social media momentum, radio airplay announcements, and critical reviews may influence consumer interest. Tour announcements or promotional appearances by Gracie Abrams could boost demand. Competitive album releases during the same week might cannibalize market share. Real-time streaming data leaks or industry insider commentary often trigger sharp price moves. As July 17 approaches, preliminary sales and streaming velocity data will become increasingly visible, allowing traders to refine probability estimates closer to resolution.
