TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 16, 3:04 PM EST
Kalshi
DarkZero Esports and Shopify Rebellion compete in map 2 of their Rainbow Six Siege match during the North America League Stage 1 2026. The winner of this individual map will be determined by competitive play on July 16, 2026.
Resolution depends on which team wins map 2 of the scheduled match. If the map is postponed and not completed within 48 hours of the original start time, or if the match or map is cancelled before play begins, the market resolves to fair market price. If a match is forfeited before any play occurs, the market resolves to fair market price. If a map is forfeited before play begins, the market resolves to fair market price. However, if a map begins and is subsequently forfeited, resolution follows the official result published by the governing body or tournament organizer.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets aggregate the collective beliefs of traders risking real capital. This market aggregates trader conviction through continuous price discovery, which can lead to sharper or earlier signals than fixed sportsbook lines. Comparing the two can reveal where professional and casual opinion diverge on the outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous order-book trading, where buyers and sellers set the odds by placing bids and asks. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price you see reflects the most recent trade and the depth of orders on both sides. As new information surfaces or trader sentiment shifts, the price adjusts in real time. This mechanism ensures that the odds always represent the marginal trader's view of the outcome at that moment.
This market resolves around Jul 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the match result is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on which team wins Map 2 of the matchup. Once the event concludes and the result is officially documented, the market settles accordingly and traders receive their payouts based on their positions.
Several factors can shift trader positioning before resolution. Roster changes, player injuries, or recent team performance trends may alter expectations about either team's chances. Pre-match analysis from esports commentators and community discussion can sway sentiment. Betting patterns and volume spikes often signal emerging consensus. Additionally, any official announcements regarding map selection, tournament format changes, or player availability could trigger repricing. Traders monitoring these signals may adjust their positions ahead of the match.