TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 2, 1:04 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the precise set scores in a specific tennis match between Daria Kasatkina and Paula Badosa at the 2026 US Open. It focuses on whether the match concludes with either player winning two sets without loss or with a 2-1 set victory. The outcome depends entirely on the final set scores achieved during the match.
The event resolves based on the exact set score of the Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa match in the 2026 US Open Women Singles Round of 128. Four possible outcomes are defined: Kasatkina winning 2-0, Kasatkina winning 2-1, Badosa winning 2-1, or Badosa winning 2-0. If the match does not occur before play begins—due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or cancellation—the market resolves to a fair price. Postponements or delays keep the market open until the rescheduled match concludes, with settlement within two weeks. If a player retires during the match, markets can resolve based on completed play; otherwise, unresolved markets settle at a fair market price determined by the Exchange. The Exchange disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders manually set prices for each possible exact score outcome, driving the market toward equilibrium based on available information and betting activity. The current top outcome reflects the aggregate expectations of participants about how the match might conclude, with volume of $26,168 and 24-hour volume of $25,634 indicating interest levels.
This market resolves around Aug 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The exact match score reported by official tournament sources will determine which contract is settled, finalizing trader positions based on the actual result.
Several signals could shift this market before Aug 30, 2026. Key matches featuring either player, especially recent performances or injuries, may alter trader expectations. Media interviews or coaching strategies revealing tactical plans could also influence odds. Additionally, weather conditions or surface changes for the event venue might impact playing styles and outcomes. As the match date approaches, any last-minute updates — such as lineup confirmations or sudden form changes — will likely cause rapid adjustments in this market’s pricing, reflecting the latest information available to traders on Kalshi.