TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Conner Leavitt
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Conner Leavitt - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 17, 2026
Closed: Sep 16, 10:21 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Sarah Jane Nader and their partner will be eliminated from Dancing with the Stars Season 35 before September 17, 2026. Currently, the probability of this outcome occurring on Kalshi is 99.0%, while the probability of Guillermo Rodriguez and their partner being eliminated is 1.0%. The market will resolve based on official eliminations as determined by the show’s producers, with resolution source being if Taylor Hanson and their partner are officially eliminated from Dancing with the Stars Season 35 before Sep 17, 2026. Keep a close eye on the results of the first two episodes, as the eliminations announced after those performances—airing before September 17, 2026—will determine the outcome.
Kalshi
For each market, the outcome resolves to 'Yes' if the specified celebrity and their partner are officially eliminated from Dancing with the Stars Season 35 at any point before September 17, 2026, during Episodes 1 or 2. Elimination is defined to include being voted off, evicted, knocked out, removed from further contention, voluntarily withdrawing, disqualification, or producer removal. The elimination must be announced through official channels such as the program's broadcast, website, verified social media accounts, or press releases. The rules specify that multiple simultaneous eliminations are counted, and an initial elimination counts even if the contestant later returns in the season. However, eliminations that are immediately reversed in the same episode, temporary suspensions, medical holds, or finishing as runner-up in the finale do not qualify. If the entire season is canceled without any eliminations being declared, all markets resolve to 'No'. Each market is evaluated independently based on the specific contestant named in its title.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts for reality competition shows like Dancing with the Stars. While analysts may focus on dance skill or celebrity popularity, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, factoring in a wider range of influences, such as social media buzz and perceived voting blocs. Discrepancies can arise when the market anticipates unexpected events or voter behavior that analysts haven’t considered. It’s a fascinating comparison to see where the collective prediction diverges from expert opinion.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of a specific contestant being eliminated. As more people buy a contract, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived chance of that outcome. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract directly corresponds to the implied probability of that event occurring, allowing traders to express their beliefs about the competition’s outcome and profit from correctly anticipating the results.
This market resolves around Sep 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official elimination results from Episodes 1 & 2 of Dancing with the Stars Season 35 are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle to 100 for the contestant(s) eliminated, and 0 for those who remain in the competition. The resolution will be based on the results announced during the broadcast of the show and confirmed by official sources, providing a definitive outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Unexpected injuries to contestants, controversial judging decisions, or major shifts in public opinion driven by social media campaigns could all cause price fluctuations. Performance during the live shows will be a key driver, with strong performances likely to lower a contestant’s elimination probability and vice versa. Any news regarding contestant personal lives or potential behind-the-scenes drama could also impact trading activity and move the odds in this market.
