TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 11:27 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Guillermo Rodriguez and their partner will be eliminated from Dancing with the Stars Season 35 before October 14, 2026. Currently, Kalshi gives a 99.0% probability to this outcome, with a 1.0% probability assigned to Connor Wood and their partner being eliminated instead. The market resolves based on official eliminations as determined by the show, with resolution source being if Amber Glenn and their partner are officially eliminated from Dancing with the Stars Season 35 before Oct 14, 2026. Keep a close eye on the results of the October 13, 2026 episode, as that is the final opportunity for audience voting before the resolution date of October 14, 2026.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the named contestant and their partner are officially eliminated from Dancing with the Stars Season 35 before October 14, 2026. Elimination is defined as being voted off, evicted, knocked out, removed from further contention, voluntarily withdrawing, disqualification, or producer removal. Declarations must come from official program broadcasts, the show's website, verified social media, or press releases. If the season is canceled without declaring eliminations, all markets resolve to 'No.' Multiple simultaneous eliminations count, and an initial elimination counts even if the contestant later returns. Eliminations immediately reversed in the same episode, temporary suspensions, medical holds, or finishing as runner-up in the finale do not count. The markets are independent of each other, meaning the elimination status of one contestant does not affect the resolution of another.
Frequently asked questions
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than those of traditional analysts. While analysts may rely on subjective evaluations of performance and choreography, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of opinions and potentially incorporating information not readily available to analysts. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert predictions and the probabilities implied by this market, particularly when unexpected events or shifts in public opinion occur. This difference can be valuable for a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of a specific contestant being eliminated. As more people buy a contract, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability of that outcome. Conversely, selling contracts lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the collective assessment of all traders participating in the market, creating a dynamic and real-time estimation of elimination probabilities. This mechanism allows for efficient price discovery based on available information and evolving sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official elimination result from Episode 6 of Dancing with the Stars is verifiable from credible public reporting. The contestant who is officially eliminated during the episode will determine the winning contract in this market. The resolution will be based on the show’s official announcement and will be considered final once it is widely reported by reliable news sources. Traders should monitor official announcements to understand when the market will be settled.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to contestants, unexpected changes in judging patterns, or shifts in public sentiment based on social media trends could all move the odds. Strong performances during the live show or rehearsal footage leaks could also influence traders' perceptions. Furthermore, any controversies surrounding a contestant could lead to a reassessment of their elimination risk. Monitoring these signals and staying informed about the latest developments in the show is crucial for understanding potential market movements.
