TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Dana White's Contender Series: Gabriel Lourenço vs. Charlie Cleveland (Heavyweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Gabriel Lourenço vs. Charlie Cleveland?

Volume:
$530,582

Gabriel Lourenco

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 2, 2026

Closed: Sep 1, 8:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Gabriel Lourenco

View
100%
63%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$259,117
N/A
N/A
$184,595
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Gabriel Lourenço vs. Charlie Cleveland

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12,901
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Charlie Cleveland

View
0%
65%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$257,650
N/A
N/A
$224,393
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
0%
98%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$780
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
97%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$135
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
98%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Lourenço to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
20¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Cleveland to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
91%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
93%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
97%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether Gabriel Lourenço will win his heavyweight fight against Charlie Cleveland by KO or TKO at Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4. Currently, the aggregated probability across Polymarket and Kalshi indicates a 100.0% chance of this outcome. Resolution will be determined by the official results reported on https://www.ufc.com/events. Keep an eye on the fight itself, scheduled for September 1, 2026, as the outcome will directly resolve these markets.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Market scope divergence between Polymarket's comprehensive outcome handling and Kalshi's binary winner-only marketHero tip: Traders on Kalshi should monitor for official UFC announcements regarding fight cancellations or postponements beyond September 15, 2026, as these scenarios create unresolved market conditions on Kalshi. Polymarket explicitly handles these edge cases with a 50-50 resolution.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Comprehensive outcome market with explicit 50-50 resolution for draws, No Contest, cancellations, or postponements beyond September 15, 2026. Key quote: 'If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 15, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."'
  • Kalshi: Binary market focused solely on winner identification with no explicit handling for draws, No Contest, cancellations, or postponements. Key quote: 'If Gabriel Lourenco wins... resolves to Yes. If Charlie Cleveland wins... resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Gabriel Lourenço" if Gabriel Lourenço is officially declared the winner of the fight against Charlie Cleveland at Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4, scheduled for September 1, 2026. It will resolve to "Charlie Cleveland" if Charlie Cleveland is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 15, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Gabriel Lourenco wins the Lourenco vs Cleveland professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Charlie Cleveland wins the Lourenco vs Cleveland professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Lourenço vs. Cleveland fight market aggregates odds and volume from multiple platforms in real time, showing how traders price the likelihood of various outcomes. It tracks total volume of $530,582 and 24-hour volume of $307,717, letting users see where interest is concentrated. The view combines data feeds so you can monitor consensus and divergence across venues, making it easier to spot shifts in sentiment as the fight approaches.

In the weeks before resolution, media coverage, pre-fight metrics, and fighter performance updates can shift this market. Injury reports, training camp highlights, and betting trends on either platform may cause odds to adjust rapidly. Any last-minute changes — such as coaching strategies or weight-cutting updates — often produce noticeable movement in the implied probabilities on both Polymarket and Kalshi.