TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Dana White's Contender Series: Brandon Holmes vs. Modestino Rodrigues (Middleweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Brandon Holmes vs Modestino Rodrigues?

Volume:
$684,834

Modestino Rodrigues

 - Kalshi

Modestino Rodrigues - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 2, 2026

Closed: Sep 1, 9:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Modestino Rodrigues

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$329,808
N/A
N/A
$207,661
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Rodrigues to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
65%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$301
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Brandon Holmes

View
0%
61%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$335,433
N/A
N/A
$271,250
Settled
No
polymarket

Brandon Holmes vs. Modestino Rodrigues

View
0%
59%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,653
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
97%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,554
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Holmes to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
93%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$65
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
0%
96%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
70%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
93%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether Modestino Rodrigues will win his upcoming Dana White's Contender Series fight against Brandon Holmes by KO or TKO. Currently, the aggregated probability across Polymarket and Kalshi indicates a 100.0% chance of this outcome. Resolution will be based on the official results reported at https://www.ufc.com/events. This event group covers markets related to the fight scheduled for September 1, 2026, so be sure to watch the fight itself to see if Rodrigues secures a KO or TKO victory.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Market scope divergence between Polymarket's comprehensive outcome handling and Kalshi's binary win-only market.Hero tip: Traders on Kalshi should be cautious as the market does not account for fight cancellations or draws, potentially leading to unresolved markets or disputes. Consider hedging positions on Polymarket for comprehensive coverage.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Markets resolve to specific outcomes (Brandon Holmes, Modestino Rodrigues, 50-50) with explicit rules for draws, No Contest, cancellations, or postponements beyond September 15, 2026. Resolution source is official UFC information.
  • Kalshi: Market resolves to Yes if either Brandon Holmes or Modestino Rodrigues wins, with no explicit handling for draws, No Contest, cancellations, or postponements. Resolution logic is incomplete for non-win outcomes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Brandon Holmes" if Brandon Holmes is officially declared the winner of the fight against Modestino Rodrigues at Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4, scheduled for September 1, 2026. It will resolve to "Modestino Rodrigues" if Modestino Rodrigues is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 15, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

These markets resolve based on the winner of the Holmes vs Rodrigues professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 2, 2026. If the fight is postponed or delayed, markets remain open until the rescheduled fight concludes within two weeks. A tie or no contest results in a 50/50 resolution for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled beyond two weeks, markets resolve at a fair price. These products are not endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a UFC; any references to UFC are descriptive only.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Holmes vs. Rodrigues fight market aggregates real-time data from multiple venues, showing how traders price the likelihood of various outcomes. It displays current probabilities, volume of $684,834, and 24-hour volume of $663,451, letting users compare sentiment across platforms. This centralized view helps participants spot trends and shifts in expectations as the event approaches.