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Dana White's Contender Series: Abe Alsaghir vs. Fabrizio Escarrega (Lightweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Abe Alsaghir vs Fabrizio Escarrega?

Volume:
$5,214,733

Quillan Salkilld

 - Kalshi

Quillan Salkilld - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 12, 2026

Closed: Aug 8, 10:39 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Quillan Salkilld

View
100%
20%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,731,510
N/A
N/A
$2,150,219
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Abe Alsaghir vs. Fabrizio Escarrega

View
100%
55%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$37,248
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
16¢
N/A
$1,068
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
16%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Mateusz Gamrot

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,443,422
N/A
N/A
$2,121,630
Settled
No
polymarket

Alsaghir to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
84%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,416
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
82%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$49
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
81%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Escarrega to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
82%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
16¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the Dana White's Contender Series fight between Abe Alsaghir and Fabrizio Escarrega in the Lightweight division. The aggregated consensus probability for Abe Alsaghir or Fabrizio Escarrega winning stands at 99.8%, combining data from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution based on official information from the UFC. Watch for the official fight result on August 11, 2026, which will determine the market's final settlement.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across platforms share identical resolution criteria based on official UFC results, with consistent handling of draws, No Contests, cancellations, and timing thresholds.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the UFC

Core resolution logic:

  • Winner markets resolve to the officially declared winner (Abe Alsaghir, Fabrizio Escarrega, or 50-50 for draws/No Contest/cancellations)
  • Method-of-victory markets (KO/TKO, Submission) resolve based on official fight ending determination
  • Round-based over/under markets resolve based on precise fight duration against defined thresholds (e.g., Over 0.5 = past 2:30 of Round 1)
  • Any fight not occurring by August 25, 2026 (canceled, postponed, or not scored) results in 50-50 resolution where applicable

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Threshold Timing: If a fight ends exactly at a threshold (e.g., exactly at 2:30 of Round 1 for O/U 0.5 Rounds), it resolves as 50-50
  • Disqualification: Fights ending in disqualification resolve as 'No' for method-of-victory markets and may impact winner markets depending on official declaration
Timing: Markets resolve after the official UFC declaration of results for the fight, no later than August 25, 2026Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Abe Alsaghir" if Abe Alsaghir is officially declared the winner of the fight against Fabrizio Escarrega at Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 1, scheduled for August 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Fabrizio Escarrega" if Fabrizio Escarrega is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the winner of the Gamrot vs Salkilld professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 8, 2026. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled fight concludes within two weeks. A tie or no contest results in a 50/50 resolution for both fighters, while cancellation or rescheduling beyond two weeks leads to a fair price resolution.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Alsaghir vs. Escarrega fight market aggregates real-time data across multiple venues, showing consensus probabilities and volume trends for this specific matchup. It tracks how traders on different platforms price the likelihood of various outcomes, offering a snapshot of collective sentiment. The view updates continuously as bets are placed, reflecting shifts in expectations before the event. With volume of $5,214,733 and 24-hour volume of $3,948,834, it provides transparency into market activity and helps users spot emerging trends.

Several signals could shift probabilities in this market before it settles. Key developments include fight-related news such as training updates, injury reports, or changes in coaching staff for either competitor. Media appearances, betting trends on other platforms, and macro factors like venue conditions or weather (if applicable) may also influence trader sentiment. Any last-minute adjustments to fight parameters or unexpected announcements from the promotion could cause rapid swings in pricing as the event approaches.