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Closed: Sep 13, 11:35 PM EST
Kalshi
In the upcoming Dallas vs New York Giants football game, Cam Skattebo and Javonte Williams will aim for significant rushing plays. Each player's longest run will be measured, with specific thresholds determining the outcome.
The markets resolve based on whether Cam Skattebo records a longest rush exceeding 12.5 yards or Javonte Williams records a longest rush exceeding 15.5 yards in the specified game. If either player is active but never takes a snap, the market settles at the fair market price before kickoff. Once a player takes at least one snap, even if nullified by penalty, the market resolves according to the longest rush recorded during the game. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or react quickly to news, while this market aggregates the opinions of many individual traders. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – both sets of odds will adjust. However, prediction markets often become more accurate closer to the event, as the collective intelligence of traders refines the probabilities. It's common to see this market and sportsbook odds converge as the game approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each player, and the price of each contract reflects the probability of that player having the longest rush. As more people buy a contract, the price increases, indicating higher confidence in that outcome. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity provide insights into how strongly traders feel about each player’s potential performance. The current prices are driven entirely by supply and demand from users trading on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, following the conclusion of the Dallas versus New York game. The outcome will be determined by which player records the longest single rushing attempt during the game, as verified against credible public reporting. Official NFL game statistics will be used to confirm the longest rush, and the corresponding contract on Kalshi will pay out to holders of that player’s contract. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on objective data from the official game results.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, particularly to key running backs on either team, would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or snow, could favor a different running style and influence which player is expected to perform best. Unexpected coaching decisions regarding play-calling or personnel could also move the market. Finally, any late-breaking news about player matchups or defensive strategies could lead to traders adjusting their positions and altering the prices on Kalshi.